480 rub. | 150 UAH | $7.5 ", MOUSEOFF, FGCOLOR, "#FFFFCC",BGCOLOR, "#393939");" onMouseOut="return nd();"> Thesis - 480 rubles, shipping 10 minutes 24 hours a day, seven days a week and holidays

Terentiev Anton Nikolaevich. Improving the methods for assessing the value of the property of Russian airlines: dissertation ... Candidate of Economic Sciences: 08.00.10 / Terentiev Anton Nikolaevich; [Place of defense: Financial University under the Government Russian Federation- FGOBUVPO].- Moscow, 2014.- 162 p.

Introduction

Chapter 1. Features of the property of the airline as an object valuation 13

1.1. Status and development strategy of the Russian air transportation market.13

1.2. The structure of the property complex of the airline. Aircraft as an object of valuation: the objectives of the valuation and the study of factors affecting the cost B 35

1.3. Legal regulation of the activities of the Russian airline and assessment of its impact on the value of property 53

Chapter 2 Analysis of the existing Russian and foreign theory and practice of assessing an airline's aircraft .64

2.1. Analysis of the Russian theory and practice of aircraft evaluation 64

2.2. Study of modern foreign methods for assessing aircraft 77

Chapter 3 The main directions of development of methods for assessing the value of property of Russian airlines .90

3.1. Development of a methodology for forecasting the cost of an aircraft. Development of methods of income approach to the valuation of aircraft 90

3.2. Development of methods cost approach to determine the value of the aircraft. Determination of the cumulative depreciation of the aircraft based on the analysis of changes in the profitability of the asset 122

3.3 Accounting for cost factors in aircraft valuation within the comparative approach. Development of aircraft valuation methods based on multipliers 131

Conclusion.138

List of used literature.141

Applications 154

Annex A Accuracy of APFM Model 154 Forecasts

Appendix B Income Model Sensitivity Measures.158

Introduction to work

Relevance of the research topic. The development of the air transportation industry is at the present stage one of the most important directions in the modernization of the Russian economy. In 2013, the passenger turnover of air traffic exceeded that of rail transport by more than 108% 1 . Over the past 10 years, the growth rates of Russian airlines' transportation indicators have been three times higher than those of the world market. The increase in the number of passengers and cargo transported in 2012 compared to 2011 amounted to 15%, in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012 - 13% 1 , while global indicators did not exceed 5% and 4%, respectively. The largest contribution to the increase in the quantitative performance of domestic airlines was made by transportation on international airlines, the growth rate of which amounted to 25% in 2012 and 30% in the 1st half of 2013.

Despite the growth of the absolute indicators of the air transportation industry, market players are experiencing difficulties in the implementation of the operational and financial activities. First, the increased demand for air transportation as a result of increased population mobility and economic development leads to a discrepancy between the scale of airline operations and the tasks set for them to expand their current capacities. Secondly, the phase of introducing new technologies in the aviation industry has intensified, increasing the efficiency of operating aircraft (hereinafter - AC) (reducing operating costs), which, in turn, leads to an accelerated replacement of worn-out aircraft and a sharper decrease in current market value aircraft of past generations. Thirdly, due to the low net profit margin (on average for the industry, according to the data of FSUE "GOSNII GA" for 9 months of 2013, 1% -2% 2), there is a limited availability of financial resources, which leads to growth as classical mechanisms (secured loans and export guarantees), and the search for new sources of financing. Fourth, in connection with the implementation of the Basel III rules and the introduction of restrictions on the volume of export guarantees provided by airlines

1 Status and development prospects of the civil aviation fleet [ Electronic resource] // Vestnik FAVT. - 2014. -
Access mode: .

2 Latest trends in the aviation finance market: Forum // Moscow. Air transport review:
website, Moscow, 2013. URL: (accessed 30.09.2013).

4 there is a high need for the development of other instruments for replenishing funds (operating and financial leasing, leaseback - leaseback, certificates for the purchase of equipment through the creation of sovereign trust funds - EET). In accordance with the data in Figure 1, lending secured by aircraft is not developed in domestic practice, which is largely due to the instability of the industry, the bankruptcy of a number of air carriers (Sky Express, Avianova, Kuban Airlines, Red Wings), as well as the lack of long-term stable liquidity .

Aircraft collateral lending

Lending under guarantees of export agencies

Leasing transactions

Source: Ilyushin Finance Co. Material of the international forum "Aviation

financing and leasing in Russia and the CIS” – 2013 3

Figure 1 - The structure of borrowed sources of financing for Russian airlines. The Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation has developed the "Strategy for the Development of Air Transport until 2020". Within the framework of this document, state regulatory authorities of the air transportation market propose, as one of the main measures, to stimulate the accelerated replacement of obsolete and worn-out fleets of aircraft.

The strategic goal of the development of the entire air transportation market is to reduce the operating costs (prime cost) of the activities of Russian airlines through the process of updating aircraft fleets. The most relevant in connection with this process is the question of the need to improve the methods of valuation of the property of airlines, paying special attention to the main structural component of fixed assets (long-term assets) - aircraft. The results of the aircraft cost assessment are used when buying and selling aircraft, leasing them, in collateral transactions, predicting changes in

3 Assessment of the domestic market of operational leasing and the possibility of aviation financing: Forum // Moscow. Air transport review: website, Moscow, 2013. URL: (accessed 30.09.2013)

5 aircraft cost in the planning period, as well as when determining the redemption market value at the end of the financial lease term. Depending on the accuracy of determining the current and projected market value of the aircraft, the assessment of the investor's risk parameters (required rate of return) depends. The issue of cost forecasting also allows the lessor to determine the risk of covering investment costs in the event of the return of the subject of the leasing transaction if the lessee (borrower) defaults.

The analysis of the domestic practice of assessing the property of airlines shows that the development of the methodology is contradictory: the approaches and methods used in practice are characterized by a number of problems that need to be addressed. First, within the framework of the income approach, there is no mechanism recognized in practice for directly constructing revenue from the operation of aircraft; the discount rate does not take into account the specifics of the required rate of return for these categories of assets. Secondly, there is no toolkit for predicting the market value of aircraft, which does not allow solving a number of applied problems. Thirdly, multidirectional assumptions are used in the calculation of the cost of aircraft in the framework of the comparative and cost approaches, which leads to a variation in the final results of the cost for most consultants and experts.

The current situation of domestic air carriers, the need

economic incentives for the modernization of aviation technology, and,

therefore, the need to improve methods for assessing the property of airlines determined the relevance of this issue. Improving the quality of appraisal procedures is an objective necessity not only for property owners, but also for management, investment analysts, leasing companies, insurance funds and banks.

Degree development Problems. Despite the development and

improvement of the methodological apparatus of assessment in general, the problems of determining the cost of specific objects, which include an aircraft, are not sufficiently covered in the economic literature. The need to clarify the conceptual apparatus, a separate study of methods for determining the cost of aircraft in the framework of profitable, comparative and cost approaches is due to the fact that the developed tools can be used

6 market participants, airline management and lessors to improve the efficiency of their work.

The first group of works that served as the basis for the study is related to the analysis of the Russian air transportation market. B.V. Artamonova, V.G. Afanasiev, V.N. Kazakova, V.D. Kasyanchika, E.F. Kosichenko, E.V. Kostromina, V.M. Kurilo, E.A. Olesyuk, E.M. Pinaeva, O.V. Repina, N.V. Fileva, A.A. Friedland. In the works of these authors, the main attention is paid to the consideration of the features of the functioning of the air transportation market and the activities of airlines, the issues of operational management in airlines, the calculation of flight efficiency indicators, and marketing aspects of activity. Of great interest are the works of foreign authors devoted to the evaluation of aircraft: G.T. Brown, P. Butowski, M. Ballard, S. Goldsmith, N. Hallestorm and others.

In general terms, the assessment of an aircraft as a vehicle is considered in a number of works by Russian economists. The works of L.P. Belykh, A.Z. Bobyleva, A.A. Andrianova, A.A. Kushel A., V.S. Valadaitsev, M.A. Fedotova and others. These works highlight the approaches and methods for the valuation of fixed assets (vehicles), as well as the features of their application from the point of view of domestic practice.

At the same time, the above domestic works on the issues under consideration do not provide a comprehensive approach to valuation and do not take into account industry and technological features that have a significant impact on the quality, objectivity and accuracy of the valuation results, do not cover the issues of assessing the property of airlines in conditions of economic instability.

Insufficient theoretical and practical development of the problems of assessing the property of Russian airlines, as well as the need for effective use of the results of their valuation determined the choice of the topic, goals and objectives of the study.

Purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of the work is to solve the scientific and practical problem of improving the methods for assessing the value of the property of airlines (aircraft as the main structural component of the carrier's assets).

7 To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set in the work:

Explore the features of the property of airlines as an object of valuation.

Clarify conceptual apparatus during evaluation procedures.

Conduct an analysis of the characteristics of the air transportation industry and identify specific factors that affect the value of the property of airlines.

Organize and summarize overseas experience assess the cost of aircraft, to adapt the application of foreign methods to Russian conditions.

To form a methodological apparatus for forecasting the cost of aircraft, which takes into account the empirically observed cyclicity, to test it on the example of specific types of property.

Modernize the existing tools for estimating the cost of airline aircraft under the income approach.

To scientifically substantiate the elements of the development of methods of cost and comparative approaches in assessing the cost of an aircraft.

Object of study are aircraft (real estate under the laws of the Russian Federation) of Russian airlines.

Subject of study are methods for assessing the market value of airline aircraft as the most significant structural component of airline property.

Methodological and theoretical foundations of the study. The methodological and theoretical basis of the dissertation was the work of domestic and foreign authors in the field of property valuation, specializing in transport, as well as legislative and regulatory documents of the Russian Federation and, above all, the Federal Law on Valuation Activities in the Russian Federation, Russian Federal Standards estimates.

The research methodology is based on the use of generally accepted
scientific methods and techniques: comparisons and generalizations, groupings, modeling,
methods of historical and logical analysis of theoretical and practical
materials, which ensures the integrity, comprehensiveness, reliability

dissertation work. The graphic description is made by means of graphs, diagrams and tables.

The dissertation was completed in accordance with paragraphs 5.1 and 5.2 of the Passport
specialty 08.00.10 - Finance, money circulation and credit (economic
science). Monographs, articles in
periodicals, including foreign authors, normative documents. AT
The work also used federal legislative acts, methodological
materials, reference materials of the statistical authorities of the Russian Federation, research results and
analytical reviews, financial and financial statements airlines,
information and methodological materials of the largest appraisal and

consulting companies, materials of scientific conferences, publications on the Internet.

The scientific novelty of the research is in the development of a set of theoretical and methodological provisions for improving the methods of valuation of the property of airlines, taking into account the current state, tasks and prospects for the development of the air transportation industry. New are the following scientific statements submitted for defense:

It is substantiated that, due to objective and subjective reasons for the development of the Russian air transportation market and the domestic stock market, at the present stage there is an underestimation of domestic airlines in comparison with foreign counterparts. Based on the construction of EV/S, EV/EBITDA, P/E multipliers for the period 2010-2013. a lag in the capitalization indicators of leading domestic airlines from global peers was revealed, as well as a decrease in the market value of shares of Russian airlines, taking into account the level of their liquidity, by an average of 34% over the period under review.

The necessity of applying a new type of cost - "base cost" as the basis for determining the current and forecast values ​​of the market value of the aircraft is proved. The mathematical dependence (exponential) of the base cost of an aircraft in a specific period of time on its age is shown ( life cycle). This type of cost is consistent with the historical trend and assumes that the aircraft is in the middle of the overhaul life at market parameters of income and operating costs for the purpose of calculating cash flow. The concepts of types of value are given when assessing the property of airlines, taking into account generally accepted international standards and rules.

For the property of airlines, a set of factors that affect the cost is substantiated: external factors - the macro level (business activity and passenger turnover, inflation expectations, exchange rates) and industry factors (the level of competition in the industry, the price of fuel and staff qualifications); internal factors - dependence of the level of operating expenses on operating time, calendar and hourly operating time of the aircraft, technical characteristics (vessel size, equipment, etc.), technical condition (overhaul life D-check, C-check).

The directions for improving the methods for estimating the cost of airline aircraft within the framework of the income approach are proposed and justified, namely: options for calculating debt and non-debt cash flows, regression dependence of specific indicators of revenue / cost of operating an aircraft are shown; decrease in profitability with an increase in the length of the aircraft route network; forecasting the volume of aviation work by types of aircraft, depending on the macro- and sectoral indicators of the air transportation market; accounting for cyclical factors in determining the discount rate associated with increased volatility by introducing a correction factor.

A hypothesis is proposed about the presence of cyclicity in predicting the market value of an aircraft, based on historical data analysis. These assumptions were tested, on the basis of which a method for predicting the cost of an aircraft was developed, which makes it possible to identify qualitatively new patterns.

the use of a complex of natural and financial indicators in assessing the cost of an aircraft. On the basis of actual purchase and sale transactions, an analysis was made of the spread of types of multipliers, which showed the possibility of using a number of them as key and most reliable in practice in Russian conditions;

the necessity of calculating the cumulative wear and tear of aircraft on the basis of income-generating factors, in contrast to the classical methods for determining obsolescence, has been proved.

Practical significance of the study is that the main provisions, conclusions and recommendations can be used by Russian practicing appraisers, financial consultants and management of leading airlines, as well as representatives of large leasing companies, insurance funds and market analysts. The main provisions of the study are devoted to the development of methods for assessing the property of airlines, taking into account the industry specifics of the air transportation market, and can be used in the field of theory and practice of valuation. The research materials are offered for introduction into the teaching of the discipline "Evaluation of fixed assets" and during specialized training courses, revealing industry specifics of valuation.

The following research results are of practical importance:

The formula for calculating the base cost allows us to conclude that there is an exponential dependence of the cost of an aircraft on its age in a specific period of time if the object is at the midpoint of the overhaul cycle and if supply and demand are equal. Investors, receiving data on the underlying value of the asset, have the opportunity to take appropriate management decisions. In addition, the base cost is the starting point in forecasting the cost of the aircraft, as well as when applying adjustments in the comparative approach.

The aircraft cost forecasting methodology was developed in order to identify the presence of additional risks associated with investing in this type of aircraft, to estimate the volatility parameter and the associated required rate of return.

The system of natural multipliers in the valuation of aircraft leads to an increase in the quality, accuracy of property valuation and expertise when checking valuation reports.

The calculation of depreciation depending on the profitability of the asset allows you to determine the factors that determine the total obsolescence of the aircraft. The variation of revenue and cost factors allows us to determine the impact of each of them on the amount of depreciation.

Testing and implementation of research results. The main conclusions and provisions of the study were reported and approved at the 5th annual

11th International Conference "Aviation Financing and Leasing in Russia and the CIS - 2013" (Moscow, Air Transport Review, 2013) and the 11th International Forum "Big Consulting 2013" (Moscow, Self-Regulatory Interregional Association of Appraisers (SMAO), 2013).

The dissertation was carried out as part of the research work carried out at the Financial University on the complex topic " Innovative development Russia: socio-economic strategy and financial policy” on the sub-topic of the department: “Management of financial and cost factors for the growth of innovative companies in Russia”.

The method for calculating the predicted market value of an aircraft, the modernization of the discounted cash flow method and the system of natural multipliers developed by the author are used in the practical activities of the Valuation Department of the Strong Link LLC company and make it possible to correctly and fully take into account all the features of the assessment of the property of domestic air carriers.

The methodology for estimating the cost of airline aircraft within the income and comparative approaches, as well as the methodology for forecasting the cost of aircraft - Aircraft price forecast model (APFM) is used in the Department of Regional Assets Management of Sberbank Capital LLC as part of the restructuring and crisis management airline property complexes. The mathematical apparatus for predicting the cost of VC allows you to determine the risks of investing in this type of asset in the event of a default by the borrower.

Approbation and implementation of the research results confirmed

relevant documents.

Structure and scope of work. The work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and an appendix. The text of the dissertation is presented on 162 pages, contains 25 tables, 31 graphs, 11 figures and a list of used literature of 140 titles.

The structure of the property complex of the airline. Aircraft as an object of valuation: the objectives of the valuation and the study of factors affecting the cost

The concept of airline property includes a set of movable and immovable things used to generate income. The analysis of the reports of 22 largest Russian air carriers (compared to 42 foreign counterparts) showed that the industry average asset structure consists of the following elements: aircraft (58%), buildings and structures (26%). At the same time, machinery and equipment account for 15% of total assets, other assets - 1%. Thus, in accordance with Figure 10, the most important component of the fixed assets of a Russian airline is an aircraft. Financial leasing provides for the following features: long term (for an aircraft, hereinafter referred to as aircraft, the term is equal to a period of up to 15 years of operation); at the end of the contract, the aircraft becomes the property of the lessee; at the conclusion of the contract, the aircraft is immediately put on the balance of the recipient and depreciated, the lessee bears financial expenses; ceteris paribus increases the debt burden of the company; Liabilities are entered into the balance sheet at their present value. Operational leasing of aircraft is characterized by: the term of the contract is much less than the useful life; at the end of the contract, the aircraft is returned to the lessor / the contract is renewed; leasing costs are included in the cost; the contractual obligations are off-balance sheet and are presented in the notes to the financial statements at undiscounted cost.

This method of accounting for the composition of assets for Russian players is justified, since in practice many domestic air carriers enter into short-term aircraft lease agreements, leaving ownership to the lessor and reflecting these transactions on off-balance accounts. As a result of this transaction, assets increase by the amount of the rights to use aircraft under operating lease (34%), liabilities increase by the amount of discounted payments for operating and financial leasing(49%). The reclassification of these airline operations results in a drop in net assets (10%). The inclusion of aircraft use rights in airline assets, in turn, leads to an increase in depreciation charges (by 2.8 times) and EBITDA (by 62%). It should be noted that interest payments on operating leases are classified as expenses for the airline's financial activities (57% increase).

Leveling the difference in the reflection of financial and operating leasing in practice will allow users of financial statements to identify a more accurate financial position of airlines. The transparency of the activities of a number of players who are currently distorting their financial indicators, underestimating the value of assets in order to avoid property tax, reducing EBITDA, including operating lease expenses in the cost of providing services. In this situation, an important role in the analysis economic activity of Russian airlines acquires EBITDAR (earnings before taxes, interest, depreciation, amortization and leases). The analysis of foreign sources showed that the European International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and the American Valuation Standards Committee (FASB) are currently developing a single standard for accounting for rental and leasing transactions in IFRS and GAAP. The main tasks that were set for the development of a unified standard for accounting for leasing contracts: the inclusion of operating leases with a contract term of more than 12 months in the report on financial position companies (balance sheet); leveling the difference in the reflection of financial and operational leasing; reflection of the leased aircraft in the lessee's assets: the right of use approach. In the new standard, in the income statement, lease expenses can be accounted for in one of the following ways (materials of the FASB and IASB meeting in June 2012): the first method: a significant part of the asset is consumed over the term of the contract - costs are higher at the beginning of the contract; the second method: an insignificant part of the asset is consumed during the term of the contract - the costs are uniform throughout the entire contract (for land plots and certain types of real estate).

Legal regulation of the activities of a Russian airline and assessment of its impact on the value of property

When moving to market economy domestic regulators have chosen a GA management system based on market liberalization with state participation. In total, there are two models for managing the air transportation market. To analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the system, we present the main pros and cons of the selected options. The first model is aimed at liberalizing the air transportation market and is currently present in the United States. In 1978, the United States passed the Airline deregulation act of 1978, Wash., 197839. When developing it, the American authorities took into account, first of all, the fact that due to a sharp increase in operating costs, many US national airlines began to incur significant losses. Meanwhile, according to the rules in force, the operators did not have the right to stop flights even on lines that were unprofitable for them. As a result, the government has chosen to deregulate air transport, believing that free competition will be a panacea that will revitalize the industry and rid the budget of excess appropriations. The main provisions of the 1978 Deregulation Act, which are still in force, are as follows: simplified formalities for issuing air operator licenses, the right to change tariffs within the permitted corridors, and the existence of free competition on airlines.

An alternative to the American model of regulation is the policy of protectionism and government regulation of all aspects of GA activity. The main parameters of this regulation are: legal support of the transportation process and ensuring flight safety; legislative consolidation of the market share for the national airline; restriction of flight frequency, licensing of flights, carrying capacities, commercial rights for other carriers; differentiation of airport and air navigation charges for foreign and domestic airlines; sale and administrative distribution of "slots", etc.

The author of the dissertation notes that there is an argument in favor of the liberalization of the Russian air transportation market. High efficiency of resource allocation, freedom of exchange, flexibility and high adaptability to changes in market conditions, optimal distribution of the latest scientific achievements, respect for the interests of airlines and customers, no shortage of traffic, improving the quality of traffic. In turn, the arguments against the market system: the extinction of competition due to mergers and conspiracies of airlines; the impossibility of full employment and the instability of the level of prices and airfares; the absence of an economic mechanism for protecting the environment and conducting fundamental research in science. Regulators of the air transportation market in the Russian Federation have chosen a model of market liberalization with elements of state regulation. Russian airlines are at different stages of their development. Some continue to remain state property, having changed their form of ownership and name. Other carriers have carried out privatization and transition to the western system of conducting aviation business. The regulatory framework governing the activity of a Russian aviation operator, as well as the process of assessing the value of property, consists of Russian sectoral legislative acts, as well as international standards for assessing aircraft. Russian federal regulations include the following documents40: Air Code of the Russian Federation dated March 19, 1997 N 60-FZ (adopted by the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on February 19, 1997) (as amended on July 18, 2009); Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR); Federal Law of the Russian Federation of March 14, 2009 N 31-F3 "On State Registration of Rights to Aircraft and Transactions with Them"; Customs Code of the Russian Federation of May 28, 2003 N 61-FZ (as amended of November 28, 2009); Customs Code The Treaty on the Customs Code of the Customs Union was adopted by the Decision of the Interstate Council of the EurAsEC No. 17 of 27.11.2009. contrary to the Customs Code of the Customs Union. Due to the economic classification, the aircraft of the airline is classified as transport fixed assets. However, in accordance with Article 130 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, to real estate include aircraft. In this regard, all transactions with aircraft must be subject to state registration, similar to other real estate. According to Article 33 of the Air Code of the Russian Federation, aircraft intended for flights are subject to state registration in the following order: civil aircraft, with the exception of ultralight civil aircraft of general aviation, - in the State Register of Civil Aircraft of the Russian Federation with the issuance of certificates of state registration or in the state register of civil aircraft of a foreign state, subject to the conclusion of an agreement on maintaining airworthiness between the Russian Federation and the state of registration; ultralight civil general aviation aircraft - in the manner established by the authorized body in the field of civil aviation. In the case of a pledge of a civil aircraft, information on the pledge shall be included in the State Register of Civil Aircraft of the Russian Federation. These regulatory restrictions lead to the fact that when conducting valuation procedures, it is necessary to take into account the documentation for the aircraft, the presence of mortgage encumbrances that require registration in the same way as real estate. According to the author of the dissertation, the regulation of aircraft as a real estate object is incorrect from the point of view of economic essence. Further development regulatory framework will help to change the rules of regulation.

When conducting assessment procedures for aircraft, it is necessary to take into account the airworthiness requirements of the aircraft, which are determined by the federal aviation regulations (hereinafter referred to as the “FAR”) and are mandatory for all market participants and operators. In accordance with the Order of the Ministry of Transport No. 132 dated May 16, 2003, the Federal Aviation Rules “Aircraft copy. Requirements and certification procedures. Civil aircraft are allowed to operate if they have a certificate of airworthiness (certificate of airworthiness). The airworthiness certificate (certificate of airworthiness) is issued on the basis of a type certificate (certificate of airworthiness) or a certificate of assessment of a particular aircraft for compliance of a particular aircraft with the airworthiness requirements of civil aircraft and environmental requirements.

All of the above should be taken into account by the evaluator during the procedures when analyzing the documentation for the aircraft. Knowledge of reporting forms, permits allows you to more effectively and professionally approach the procedures for valuation activities.

Study of modern foreign methods for assessing aircraft

Issues related to the evaluation of the VS in foreign theory and practice appeared quite a long time ago. Actual issues of updating and expanding aircraft fleets, transactions for their purchase and sale, pledge of aircraft facilities, and the solution of aspects of operational efficiency began in the early 1980s, so Western appraisers have accumulated a lot of theoretical and practical experience in determining the cost of aircraft.

Russian practice is developing rapidly, methods and assessment techniques used by Russian specialists have been strongly developed in recent years. However, methodological gaps remain in the assessment process, which should be taken into account and implemented in practice. A complex approach to the use of foreign methods, taking into account Russian specifics, will improve the quality of the preparation of aircraft assessment reports.

As a result of the analysis and research, foreign methods for estimating aircraft were identified and analyzed, including specific methods for determining the forecasted cost of aircraft, limitations of their application in terms of error. In the beginning, let us consider the specifics of applying the income approach to the valuation of aircraft in foreign practice. Most Western experts, in the framework of applying the income approach to estimating aircraft, use the following forecasting option: “specific data on revenue and cost per passenger-kilometer multiplied by the volume of air operations”55. Thus, having data on the predicted volume by types of aircraft, it is possible to predict flows from aircraft. Currently, appraisers from the USA have the most acceptable statistics on the aircraft market. As part of a collaboration between the American Society of Aircraft Appraisers (ANNA) and the United States Air Transport Organization (ATA), periodicals in terms of the volume of historical and forecast passenger kilometers (hereinafter referred to as pkm) for various types of aircraft in general for the air transportation market. In addition, the American scientist Roberts P.58 deduced the following dependence of the revenue per km indicator on the average flight range. The study showed that the profitability per pkm at an average distance of 596 km is 20% higher than the same rate for a distance of 896 km. Thus, as part of the calculations, it is necessary to take into account the factor of revenue growth in the event of a change in the future aircraft routes.

The indicators described above allow foreign specialists, as a first approximation, to compile cash flows for aircraft as the difference between revenue and cost of operation. Despite the simplicity of the approach, the technique has the following disadvantages: simplification in forecasting while minimizing the analysis of factors affecting the flow rate; high dependence of the market value on the discount rate and the revenue growth factor associated with the average distance of routes; conducting an analysis based on average industry data without taking into account local characteristics and congestion of the route network; lack of data on the cost structure of aircraft; the impossibility of analyzing changes in cash flow from internal elements; lack of a methodology for calculating the discount rate to forecast flows. Similar to the practical formula of the US specialists described above, despite the simplicity and applicability of the discounting formula, in practice the accuracy of this model is quite ambiguous depending on the factor that affects the final result. This model takes into account a set of cost factors that is not exhaustive. In contrast to simplified methods, the scientist Mr. Edmund Greemslet60, whose work was published in The airline monitor. Vol 11 in accordance with Table 7 in 2005, developed a more multi-factor model for calculating the cost of aircraft. There is no income tax in the proposed model, as this category relates to the operator's business, and not to a separate fixed asset. Based on the proposed model, all factors affecting the cost can be divided into two groups: Revenue factors: utilization of flight hours, commercial load, profitability per passenger kilometer; Costs: payroll, fuel, repairs and airworthiness, lease interest Similar to the previous analysis, the change in each factor leads to an impact on the cost of the aircraft. As part of the practical part of Chapter No. 3, the author of the dissertation conducted factor analysis according to this method and made the appropriate conclusions to improve the tools. Foreign authors have also developed methods for predicting the cost of aircraft. Currently, Russian specialists do not use these methods due to the lack of a practical request. However, with the further development of leasing relations in domestic practice this question will play the greatest role in terms of the growth of requirements for the quality of assessment.

Within the description existing models forecasting knows two theoretical formulas: AVAC (Aircraft Value analysis Company)61, AVMARK. As part of further analysis, in Chapter 3 of the dissertation, an actuarial calculation will be carried out using the above models, as well as new modified formula calculations and a new author's APFM model will be proposed.

The AVAC62 was developed in the UK and is the property of the company of the same name. This device allows you to predict the future and determine the current market value of the aircraft. Various inputs, such as global GDP, the aviation market, and the supply and demand of the aircraft market, are introduced to determine future value.

Development of methods of the cost approach to determining the cost of an aircraft. Determination of the cumulative depreciation of the aircraft based on the analysis of changes in the profitability of the asset

An analysis of the practice of estimating the cost of aircraft made it possible to reveal that, within the framework of the cost approach, the features are manifested in the calculation of the total depreciation (physical, functional and external). According to paragraph 1 of chapter 2 of the dissertation research, at the moment in Russia there is no single standard that unifies the process of assessing an aircraft, in particular for the cost approach. In 2000, the "Methodology for assessing the market value of aircraft" was developed, which was published as STO ROO 21-04-9881. In the STO ROO 21-04-98 methodology, the main attention was paid to the cost approach, which determines the residual value of the aircraft by subtracting all types of wear and tear from the total cost of reproduction, namely: removable functional obsolescence and physical wear, irremovable physical wear and functional obsolescence and external wear. . Despite all the usefulness of this technique, it is not sufficiently substantiated and there is no step-by-step derivation of the above formula or justifications for its structure. The formulas also use the parameters Vp - revenue per passenger per 1 km of distance, minus taxes on revenue, and Rfc - costs by analogy per one flight hour. The parameters K, Nch, Rlch, Vp are directly related to the external economic conditions of aircraft operation. If the economic situation is favorable, then the parameters that determine income and expenses increase; if the situation is unfavorable, then these parameters decrease. In the second case, external wear and tear will take place, leading to a decrease in the market value of the aircraft.

When calculating the irremovable functional obsolescence using formulas, the values ​​of the parameters Vp, Rlch, Nch, K should be entered into them without taking into account their deterioration due to external wear . If we substitute the full replacement cost (PVA) instead of the NPV parameter in the formula, then we get the equation: PVA \u003d [(D - R) (1 - Npr)] / i + DprT / (1 + I)T (20) discount rate I, will give the value of the rate characterizing the risk of investing funds in the purchase of a new analogue. This rate can then be used to calculate the NPV for the assessed aircraft as if it were new, since both the assessed aircraft and a new analogue are available to the potential buyer. The calculation of the value of NDDb according to the new analogue is performed according to the formulas listed earlier. Loss of profit (PP) due to the worse technical and economic characteristics of the assessed aircraft compared to the new analogue (i.e., irremovable functional obsolescence of the new aircraft) is calculated by the formula: PP = NPV - NPV (21) The resulting formula for assessing the irremovable functional obsolescence is derived by calculating the capitalized loss of net cash flow due to the worse characteristics of the assessed aircraft compared to its analogue, based on generally accepted provisions for the assessment of profitable objects, taking into account the theory of changes in the value of money over time. The formula given in the PP calculations is the most reasonable, since it takes into account all the factors that change the cost and affect the loss of part of the flow due to a decrease in income and an increase in expenditure. The irreparable physical wear and tear of an aircraft during normal operation is mainly determined by the operating time on the ground and in flight, as well as the calendar service life. The service life is determined from the maximum value: technical and assigned resource. Despite the simplicity of this approach, it is worth recognizing significant errors in determining aircraft wear in a linear way. Fatal physical wear characterizes the irreparable loss of the object of its original properties. This is expressed in the reduction of the forthcoming service life of the object before its decommissioning in comparison with the service life before decommissioning of a new object. When purchasing a profitable object, its buyer usually pays money for the cash flow that he will receive in the future during the operation of this object. The shorter the remaining lifetime of an object, the shorter the specified flow will be. Therefore, a decrease in the current value of the cash flow (excluding the cost of maintenance and repairs) from the future operation of the facility, compared with the current value of such a flow for a new facility .

First, let's consider examples of the impossibility of using the effective age method to assess irremovable physical wear and tear. In the first example, the cost of the AC consists of short-lived (hereinafter - QOL) and long-lived elements (hereinafter - LL). The replacement of QOL occurs every overhaul cycles and the life span is much less than that of DZh. Linear cost reduction, according to the author of the dissertation, is incorrect in this case. In the proposed model, the degree of wear is directly proportional to the effective age of the LL and QL, which are often equated to their actual age. The resulting linear depreciation model is inconsistent with ideas about the actual degree of decrease in the utility of a profitable object as the remaining economic life of an object decreases.

Based on the above, we can conclude that in order to ensure a more correct calculation of the market value by the cost approach, it is advisable to use the theory of changes in the value of money over time in relation to accounting for cumulative depreciation, and not just functional obsolescence and external depreciation. For this, the algorithm described earlier in the calculation of irremovable functional obsolescence (18) can be used.

Scientific potential Basic research, applied scientific developments and development work are carried out by 72 organizations, including 5 academic institutes, 15 research, 20 design bureaus. Most of them are in federal state ownership.

Summary. In the city of Samara and the region, there are many important factors that ensure the attractiveness of the region:

Favorable natural and geographical position;

Rich natural resources;

Strong industrial base;

Availability of highly qualified specialists;

Worldwide recognition of research potential;

Developed transport infrastructure, etc.

Against this background, the aviation industry in Samara is one of the fundamental in shaping the economy of the region. The Volga Regional Directorate of the Federal Aviation Service of Russia is one of the largest in the country. International airport "Kurumoch", as well as the runway IAC "Aviacor" can receive any aircraft. This undoubtedly attracts investors and creates favorable conditions for the aviation business.

The objects of assessment - Tu-154M gliders are among the most common in Russian civil aviation - they account for 30% of the entire fleet of passenger aircraft and more than 50% of all passenger traffic in Russia, and the Yak aircraft account for % of the Russian aircraft fleet. The aircraft under consideration are the most economical on medium-sized highways and are in steady demand.

Regional conditions for the possible sale or lease of objects of assessment satisfactory.

3.2. Legal and government aspects

The positions of the Russian Government regarding aviation policy are formulated in the Federal Law "On State Regulation of Aviation Development" (January 1998). The development of civil aviation is focused on the commissioning of new, more efficient aircraft and the attraction of foreign capital with a share of ≤25% for the development, testing and repair of aviation equipment. Reasonable customs barriers for the purchase of foreign aircraft, new rules for the lease and leasing of foreign-made aircraft are being worked out.

3.3. Competition and world leaders

The volume of traffic on domestic routes in Russia continues to decline, on international routes it continues to grow. In Russia, more than 300 organizations have an aircraft operator's certificate, of which 57% eight airlines. Only 15 largest airlines (Aeroflot, Transaero, Vnukovo Airlines, Domodedovo and others) have long-range and medium-haul aircraft Il-62, Il-96, Tu-204, Tu-154, Boeing-757, Airbus Industry A310 and have the necessary infrastructure to maintain the airworthiness of their air fleet. More than 50 airlines have access to international flights.

According to analysts (Robin Olson, SHE Co, etc.), in the next 5 years, the annual growth rate of air transportation in the CIS can be 8.8% for domestic routes and 7.5% for international ones. In this regard, there is an acute problem of updating the aircraft fleet, since a significant part of the aircraft has exhausted or is close to exhausting its resource. Now the Russian aviation industry is not able to provide the required renewal of the fleet, and this requires the purchase of aircraft in the West.

The most active implementation policy for Russian Airlines is pursued by Boeing, offering 727, 737, 757, 747, 767, MD-80 and MD-11 aircraft, and Airbus Industry with A300 and A310 aircraft. This line of aircraft allows you to solve almost all the tasks of air transportation. However, as noted above, only 8-15 Russian airlines can renew their aircraft fleet and, consequently, the need for Tu-154 and Yak-42 aircraft will remain in the next 10 years.

4. Regulatory framework

4.1. Standards and regulations

The assessment of the objects specified in this Report was carried out in full compliance with the requirements:

electrical equipment (SU3)

instrumentation (SU4)

aeronautical equipment (SU5)

Airframe TBO (Mrji), j=1 (airframe)

i=3, cal.

Remaining life of the airframe before repair (OMrji)

i=3, cal.

Discount rate (I) **)

Estimated time to the planned KR of the unit "j" for the resource "i" (Tji)

TOTAL Adjustable Physical Degradation (ADu)

Physical wear and tear, irreparable

Economic service life (NLi)

i=3, cal.

Remaining useful life (RLi)

i=3, cal.

Fatal physical deterioration (Fn)

Functional depreciation, removable, is measured by the cost of elimination due to structural modifications of the aircraft, permitted by the current documentation, revision bulletins, etc.

Removable Functional Wear (ADvu)

$ thousand

Unrecoverable functional wear

ADvn = (1 - (N/Na) * (K/Ka) * (V/Va)b * (H/Ha)c + Vn)) * CN/CNa +

+ (1 - (1/τ) / (1/ τa)) * (1-Vn) * (1 - Np) * (Ch * H)/(Cha * Ha)* I

Analog cost (CNa) - B/700

Passenger capacity

object (N)

analogue (Na)

Seat occupancy rate

object (K)

analog (Ka)

0,6 ¸ 0,7

Cruising speed

object (V)

analogue (Vа)

Flying hours per year

object (H)

analog (Ha)

Economic life of the Armed Forces

object (NL)

analogue (NLа)

As of:

Flight hour cost

object (Ch)

analog (Cha)

Specific indicator of fuel consumption

object (τ)

analogue (τ a)

Exponent considering aircraft type ***)

Vn = 1 / (1 + I)NL/H

Income tax rate (Np)

Unrecoverable Functional Wear (ADvn)

Functional obsolescence (3.1. + 4.12)

External wear (max ( 5.1 , 5.2 ))

Sales Comparison

Loss of income ***) (higher fuel prices)

Cumulative wear S= F) * (1 - V) * (1 - E) =

1 - [ + 2.3) ] * *

Cost by cost approach

*) - according to the maximum allowable resources, the rest - according to the regulations

**) - Here the object is considered as a long-lived property complex, equivalent to a real estate object, the loss of demand for which is unlikely: I = Ib + Ip = 10% + 2%, Ib - safe rate (on $ deposits), Ip - risk premium, corresponds to the aircraft risk insurance rate.

***) In relation to indicators "fuel consumption" / pass.*km

The cost of gliders obtained by the cost approach is.

Aircraft (LA) are one of the most complex and expensive types of modern technology. In their cost expertise, it is necessary to be guided not only by general approaches that consider aircraft as a specific class of property, but also by methods that take into account the specifics of valuation of objects that are very different in terms of functionality, operating principles and design. This material presents a method for determining the market value of civil aircraft (AC) based on the cost of their reproduction, taking into account physical and functional wear.

First of all, it should be noted that according to Air Code of the Russian Federation (adopted by the State Duma of the Russian Federation on February 19, 1997) Aircraft are classified as aircraft supported in the atmosphere due to interaction with air that is not reflected from the surface of the earth or water. . Besides, The Civil Code of the Russian Federation classifies aircraft subject to state registration as real estate, and the rest as machinery and equipment . Nevertheless, taking into account the functional purpose and structural properties of aircraft, it is advisable to consider them as a single class of machines and equipment when assessing them.

Over the past few years, the park of domestic aircraft significantly outdated both physically and morally. In the very near future, many types of aircraft are to be written off. At the same time, airline companies often do not have the funds to purchase new aircraft, as a result of which the mass production of most types of aircraft has practically ceased. Thus, it is very difficult for an expert to obtain reliable information about the replacement cost of the object in question, since the prices offered by manufacturers differ significantly from the amounts of specific transactions that are traditionally not disclosed. Therefore, when conducting economic and legal research, a specialist needs to take into account the characteristics of the primary and secondary, global and regional aircraft markets, as well as structural inflation for the main types of aircraft. The market value of aircraft depends on many factors, the main of which include the principle of operation (aerostatic, aerodynamic, space, aerospace and rockets), functional purpose (research, economic, military and sports), flight performance (LTH ), parameters that determine the main operating costs, the maintenance and repair system (MRO), limits on the life of the operation, and so on. the most important distinctive feature aircraft from other types of equipment is the presence of requirements to ensure a given level of safety, airworthiness, performance characteristics throughout the entire service life . The fulfillment of these requirements is regulated by special regulations and organizational and technical systems (certification, attestation, licensing).

In accordance with the developed technical documentation the main power structures of aircraft are designed on the basis of the conditions for ensuring a given time and number of flights (technical resource) . The modern concept of aircraft operation "on condition" does not have directive established resource limitations. Aircraft are used until the end of their economic life, when the cost of their repair becomes unprofitable.

Therefore, at the initial stage of aircraft operation, a significantly lower value of the resource (assigned resource) is set, which is subsequently extended to the value specified in the terms of reference or a greater value. The timing of maintenance and repair activities, as well as the limiting indicators of aircraft operation, are measured by the duration of work cycles (hours) or calendar time. The procedure for increasing the assigned resources requires significant financial and time costs, which should be taken into account when performing the examination.
Due to the fact that the design of aircraft is constantly upgraded, their full replacement cost is often calculated as replacement cost. At the same time, there are several approaches, most of which are based on the construction of costing or resource-technological models. However, they are practically not applicable to the assessment of modern aircraft due to the significant laboriousness of collecting the necessary data. Therefore, to determine the total cost of the reproduction of the object, information is currently mainly used on the prices of proposals from airlines, adjusted by introducing the appropriate "bargaining" coefficients (obtained from market data averaged for similar products of the considered manufacturing plant).
Calculation cumulative wear (impairment) of an aircraft is made according to the formula:

where:
S- the amount of cumulative depreciation, in shares;
F, V, E- the amount of physical, functional and economic depreciation, respectively, in shares.

During normal operation aircraft physical deterioration is mainly determined by the operating time in flight and on the ground, as well as time-dependent processes of aging and corrosion of materials. The value of F, acceptable to maintain a given level of safety and airworthiness, is provided by a maintenance and repair system, the regulations of which provide for the determination of the actual level of wear and its elimination. At the same time, the prompt replacement of failed removable units is carried out in the process of pre-flight and post-flight maintenance. Determination of the degree of obsolescence of the most loaded non-removable units of the airframe and engines, as well as their adjustment or replacement, is carried out in the process of overhaul (CR).

Currently, the main form of maintenance and repair of domestic aircraft is a preventive system that provides for appropriate maintenance of the aircraft depending on the operating time in flight hours, cycles (takeoffs-landings, on-off) and on calendar time. The frequency of CR is established by the assigned resource before the first repair and overhaul resources - for subsequent ones.
In the process of overhaul, not complete, but partial elimination of the physical wear and tear of aircraft and engines is ensured. Therefore, in the calculations, irreparable wear and tear , the value of which is calculated by the formula:

where:
fn- irreparable physical deterioration;
NL- duration of economic life (service life) ? the maximum value of the technical and assigned resources;
RL- the term of the remaining useful life, defined as the value of the resource remaining before the write-off;
EA- effective age, calculated as the difference between the service life and the remaining useful life.

The depreciation of an aircraft as a vehicle as a result of irreparable physical wear and tear is a deterioration in its consumer properties due to a reduction in the possible operating time over the remaining useful life.
For an aircraft as a whole, as well as for its main long-lived element that determines the functioning and service life of an aircraft (for example, an aircraft airframe, the price of which includes the cost of all components and assemblies, with the exception of short-lived elements evaluated separately), the proposed assessment methodology is based on the following provisions: 1. The effective service life strictly coincides with the actual operating time reflected in the documentation from the moment the aircraft was released, and the value of the remaining useful life and the degree of irremovable physical wear and tear are determined by the formulas:

where:
A- actual operating time since the release of the aircraft;
i- index of operating time (for flying hours i = 1, for the number of landings i = 2, and so on).

2. When assessing the degree of irremovable physical wear and tear in terms of calendar time, the value of the remaining useful life is estimated taking into account the possible operating time of each of the life-limiting resources for the remaining calendar time. In this case, the calculations are made according to the following dependencies:

where:
RLki- the term of the remaining useful life in calendar time, determined taking into account the possible operating time of the resource with index i for the calendar time remaining before decommissioning;
fnki- the degree of irremovable physical wear and tear in calendar time, determined taking into account the possible operating time of the resource with index i;
NLk- duration of economic life (service life) in calendar time;
Ak- calendar time since the release of the aircraft;
Ri- operating time with index i per unit of calendar time (annual flight hours, number of take-offs and landings, engine starts per year, and so on), technically possible and realistically feasible under operating conditions (taking into account the principle of the best and most efficient use of aircraft).

Then, for the calculated value of the degree of irremovable physical wear (Fnr) is taken:

The components and units included in the aircraft as a whole must meet general conditions aircraft safety, however, they are not subject to the requirement to promptly eliminate physical wear and tear in the process of pre-flight preparation. In case of failure or depletion of overhaul resources, the MRO system provides for their replacement with subsequent repair.
Practice shows that with an increase in operating time, as well as as a result of repeated repair actions, the frequency of unit failures, the cost and time of their adjustment may increase. Thus, there is an additional deterioration in consumer properties and depreciation of aircraft elements, characterized by a non-linear dependence of the market value of the product on the duration of operation cycles.
In addition, for short-lived units, physical wear in terms of calendar time is determined by the aging processes of the materials of individual parts that are replaced during the next repair. Therefore, as a rule, the calendar service life of products is taken into account when calculating the removable wear and tear and does not affect the amount of irreparable obsolescence.

Calculation of the irremovable physical wear and tear of individual aircraft units and components can be carried out for each type of operating time and calendar time using formula (2) with an additional assessment of the difference between their effective age and the actual one. The maximum value is taken as the calculated value of obsolescence.

Impairment as a result removable physical wear includes the costs required to replace or repair failures to the point where the loss in value of components and assemblies would be determined solely by irreparable obsolescence, as well as the present value of the deferred planned overhaul of the elements that were operational at the time of the assessment. In this case, the calculations are made according to the formulas:

where:
ADu- impairment due to disposable wear and tear;
Suj- the cost of troubleshooting the j-th unit;
crj- the cost of the planned overhaul of the j-th unit;
Mrji
OMrji- estimated value of the overhaul life with index i of the j-th unit;
I- discount rate;
Tji- the calculated value of the time interval until the scheduled overhaul of the j-th unit, determined by the balance of the overhaul life with index i;
Rji- operating time of the j-th resource aggregate with index i per unit of calendar time.

The ratio of the amount of depreciation as a result of irreparable and disposable wear and tear to the full replacement cost of the aircraft determines the amount of total physical obsolescence.

functional wear is caused by a loss in value caused either by the appearance on the market of cheaper aircraft or vehicles, or by the non-compliance of the characteristics of the aircraft in question with modern standards, flight safety requirements, environmental restrictions, comfort indicators, quality of passenger service, and so on.
Removable functional wear is measured by the amount of costs for its compensation due to the design modifications of the aircraft, officially permitted by the current documentation. Unrecoverable functional wear is a consequence of shortcomings, the correction of which is currently practically impossible or economically unreasonable, and for a passenger aircraft can be determined by the formulas:

where:
ADvn- functional depreciation of the aircraft due to differences in the main characteristics compared to the analogue;
Cb- market value of the analogue;
Nb, Nc- passenger capacity of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft with similar layouts of the passenger cabin;
Kb, Kc- coefficients of occupancy of seats of analogue and aircraft;
Vb, Vc- cruising speed of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft;
Hb, Hc- flight time of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft, hours per year;
a, b- indicators that take into account the impact of differences in cruising speeds and annual flying hours (depending on the type of aircraft);
NLc, NLb- the economic life of the aircraft and analogue, in flight hours;
Chb, Chc- the cost of the flight hour of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft;
V- the current value of the monetary unit at the end of the economic life of the assessed aircraft;
I- discount rate;
Do- loss of profit for the year;
Np- Income tax rate.

Calculation economic (external) depreciation basically boils down to determining the present value of the loss of profits resulting from the use of the aircraft over the predicted period of time from the moment of assessment to the end of operation. To additional view external obsolescence can be attributed to the loss of value resulting from the transition of the aircraft from the primary to the secondary market.

The presented mathematical model for assessing civil aircraft formed the basis for the methods approved by the Federal Aviation Service (FAS) of Russia, used by practitioners in their work, as well as by training and methodological centers in the preparation of independent experts. This approach can be used to calculate the cost of a wider class of machinery and equipment, for which the requirements are met to ensure the preservation of a given level of safety and basic operational and technical characteristics from the moment of manufacture to decommissioning after depletion of resources.

Methodology for determining the market value of aircraft 01.01.2000 Author Luzhansky B. Aircraft (LA) are one of the most complex and expensive types of modern technology. In their cost expertise, it is necessary to be guided not only by general approaches that consider aircraft as a specific class of property, but also by methods that take into account the specifics of valuation of objects that are very different in terms of functionality, operating principles and design. This material presents a method for determining the market value of civil aircraft (AC) based on the cost of their reproduction, taking into account physical and functional wear. First of all, it should be noted that in accordance with the Air Code of the Russian Federation (adopted by the State Duma of the Russian Federation on February 19, 1997), aircraft that are supported in the atmosphere due to interaction with air that is not reflected from the surface of the earth or water are classified as aircraft. In addition, the Civil Code of the Russian Federation classifies aircraft subject to state registration as real estate, and the rest as machinery and equipment. Nevertheless, taking into account the functional purpose and structural properties of aircraft, it is advisable to consider them as a single class of machines and equipment when assessing them. Over the past few years, the fleet of domestic aircraft has become significantly outdated, both physically and morally. In the very near future, many types of aircraft are to be written off. At the same time, airline companies often do not have the funds to purchase new aircraft, as a result of which the mass production of most types of aircraft has practically ceased. Thus, it is very difficult for an expert to obtain reliable information about the replacement cost of the object in question, since the prices offered by manufacturers differ significantly from the amounts of specific transactions that are traditionally not disclosed. Therefore, when conducting economic and legal research, a specialist needs to take into account the characteristics of the primary and secondary, global and regional aircraft markets, as well as structural inflation for the main types of aircraft. The market value of aircraft depends on many factors, the main of which include the principle of operation (aerostatic, aerodynamic, space, aerospace and rockets), functional purpose (research, economic, military and sports), flight performance (LTH ), parameters that determine the main operating costs, the maintenance and repair system (MRO), limits on the life of the operation, and so on. The most important distinguishing feature of an aircraft from other types of equipment is the presence of requirements to ensure a given level of safety, airworthiness, performance characteristics throughout the entire service life. The fulfillment of these requirements is regulated by special regulations and organizational and technical systems (certification, attestation, licensing). In accordance with the developed technical documentation, the main power structures of aircraft are designed based on the condition of providing a given time and number of flights (technical resource). The modern concept of aircraft operation "on condition" does not have directive established resource limitations. Aircraft are used until the end of their economic life, when the cost of their repair becomes unprofitable. Therefore, at the initial stage of aircraft operation, a significantly lower value of the resource (assigned resource) is set, which is subsequently extended to the value specified in the terms of reference or a greater value. The timing of maintenance and repair activities, as well as the limiting indicators of aircraft operation, are measured by the duration of operation cycles (operating time) or calendar time. The procedure for increasing the assigned resources requires significant financial and time costs, which should be taken into account when performing the examination. Due to the fact that the design of aircraft is constantly upgraded, their full replacement cost is often calculated as replacement cost. At the same time, there are several approaches, most of which are based on the construction of costing or resource-technological models. However, they are practically not applicable to the assessment of modern aircraft due to the significant laboriousness of collecting the necessary data. Therefore, to determine the total cost of the reproduction of the object, information is currently mainly used on the prices of proposals from airlines, adjusted by introducing the appropriate "bargaining" coefficients (obtained from market data averaged for similar products of the considered manufacturing plant). Calculation of the cumulative depreciation (depreciation) of the aircraft is made according to the formula: where: S - the amount of cumulative depreciation, in shares; F, V, E - the value of physical, functional and economic depreciation, respectively, in shares. During normal operation, the physical wear of an aircraft is mainly determined by the operating time in flight and on the ground, as well as the time-dependent processes of aging and corrosion of materials. The value of F, acceptable to maintain a given level of safety and airworthiness, is provided by a maintenance and repair system, the regulations of which provide for the determination of the actual level of wear and its elimination. At the same time, the prompt replacement of failed removable units is carried out in the process of pre-flight and post-flight maintenance. Determination of the degree of obsolescence of the most loaded non-removable units of the airframe and engines, as well as their adjustment or replacement, is carried out in the process of overhaul (CR). At present, the main form of MRO of domestic aircraft is a preventive maintenance system that provides for appropriate maintenance of the aircraft depending on the operating time in flight hours, cycles (takeoffs and landings, on/off) and on calendar time. The frequency of CR is established by the assigned resource before the first repair and overhaul resources - for subsequent ones. In the process of overhaul, not complete, but partial elimination of the physical wear and tear of aircraft and engines is ensured. Therefore, in the calculations, irremovable wear is allocated, the value of which is calculated by the formula: where: Fn - irremovable physical wear; NL - duration of economic life (service life) ? the maximum value of the technical and assigned resources; RL - the term of the remaining useful life, defined as the value of the resource remaining before decommissioning; EA is the effective age, calculated as the difference between the service lives and the remaining useful life. The depreciation of an aircraft as a vehicle as a result of irreparable physical wear and tear is a deterioration in its consumer properties due to a reduction in the possible operating time over the remaining useful life. For an aircraft as a whole, as well as for its main long-lived element that determines the functioning and service life of an aircraft (for example, an aircraft airframe, the price of which includes the cost of all components and assemblies, with the exception of short-lived elements evaluated separately), the proposed assessment methodology is based on the following provisions: 1. The effective service life strictly coincides with the actual operating time reflected in the documentation since the aircraft was released, and the value of the remaining useful life and the degree of irremovable physical wear and tear are determined by the formulas: where: A - actual operating time since the release of the aircraft; i - index of operating time (for flying hours i = 1, for the number of landings i = 2, and so on). 2. When assessing the degree of irremovable physical wear and tear in terms of calendar time, the value of the remaining useful life is estimated taking into account the possible operating time of each of the life-limiting resources for the remaining calendar time. In this case, calculations are made according to the following dependencies: where: RLki - the period of remaining useful life in calendar time, determined taking into account the possible operating time of the resource with index i for the calendar time remaining before decommissioning; Fnki - the degree of irremovable physical wear in terms of calendar time, determined taking into account the possible operating time of the resource with index i; NLk - duration of economic life (service life) in calendar time; Ak - calendar time since the release of the aircraft; Ri - operating time with index i per unit of calendar time (annual flight hours, number of takeoffs and landings, engine starts per year, and so on), technically possible and realistically feasible under operating conditions (taking into account the principle of the best and most efficient use of aircraft). Then, the calculated value of the degree of irremovable physical wear and tear (Fnr) is taken as follows: The components and assemblies included in the aircraft as a whole must meet the general safety conditions of the aircraft, but they are not subject to the requirement of prompt elimination of physical wear and tear in the process of pre-flight preparation. In case of failure or depletion of overhaul resources, the MRO system provides for their replacement with subsequent repair. Practice shows that with an increase in operating time, as well as as a result of repeated repair actions, the frequency of unit failures, the cost and time of their adjustment may increase. Thus, there is an additional deterioration in consumer properties and depreciation of aircraft elements, characterized by a non-linear dependence of the market value of the product on the duration of operation cycles. In addition, for short-lived units, physical wear in terms of calendar time is determined by the aging processes of the materials of individual parts that are replaced during the next repair. Therefore, as a rule, the calendar service life of products is taken into account when calculating the removable wear and tear and does not affect the amount of irreparable obsolescence. Calculation of the irremovable physical wear and tear of individual aircraft units and components can be carried out for each type of operating time and calendar time using formula (2) with an additional assessment of the difference between their effective age and the actual one. The maximum value is taken as the calculated value of obsolescence. Impairment due to recoverable physical wear and tear includes costs required to replace or repair malfunctions to the point where the loss in value of components and assemblies would be determined solely by irreparable obsolescence, as well as the present value of deferred scheduled overhaul of items that were operational at the time of assessment. In this case, calculations are made according to the formulas: where: ADu - depreciation as a result of disposable wear and tear; Suj - the cost of troubleshooting the j-th unit; Crj is the cost of the planned overhaul of the j-th unit; Mrji is the calculated value of the overhaul life with index i of the j-th unit; OMrji is the calculated value of the overhaul life with index i of the j-th unit; I - discount rate; Tji is the calculated value of the time interval until the scheduled overhaul of the j-th unit, determined by the balance of the overhaul life with index i; Rji - running time of the j-th resource unit with index i per unit of calendar time. The ratio of the amount of depreciation as a result of irreparable and disposable wear and tear to the full replacement cost of the aircraft determines the amount of total physical obsolescence. Functional wear and tear is caused by a loss in value, caused either by the appearance on the market of cheaper aircraft or vehicles, or by the mismatch of the characteristics of the aircraft in question with modern standards, flight safety requirements, environmental restrictions, comfort indicators, quality of passenger service, and so on. Removable functional wear is measured by the amount of costs for its compensation due to the design modifications of the aircraft, officially permitted by the current documentation. Irremovable functional wear is the result of shortcomings, the correction of which is currently practically impossible or economically unreasonable, and for a passenger aircraft it can be determined by the formulas: Cb - market value of the analogue; Nb, Nc - passenger capacity of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft with similar layouts of the passenger cabin; Kb, Kc - coefficients of occupancy of analogue and aircraft seats; Vb, Vc - cruising speed of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft; Hb, Hc - flight time of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft, hours per year; a, b - indicators that take into account the effect of differences in cruising speeds and annual flying hours (depending on the type of aircraft); NLc, NLb - economic life of the aircraft and analogue, in flight hours; Chb, Chc - the cost of the flight hour of the analogue and the assessed aircraft; V is the current value of the monetary unit at the end of the economic life of the assessed aircraft; I - discount rate; Do - loss of profit for the year; Np - income tax rate. The calculation of economic (external) depreciation is mainly reduced to determining the current value of the loss of profit as a result of the use of an aircraft for the predicted period of time from the moment of assessment to the termination of operation. An additional type of external obsolescence can be attributed to the loss of value as a result of the transition of the aircraft from the primary to the secondary market. The presented mathematical model for assessing civil aircraft formed the basis for the methods approved by the Federal Aviation Service (FAS) of Russia, used by practitioners in their work, as well as by training and methodological centers in the preparation of independent experts. This approach can be used to calculate the cost of a wider class of machinery and equipment, for which the requirements are met to ensure the preservation of a given level of safety and basic operational and technical characteristics from the moment of manufacture to decommissioning after depletion of resources. Boris LUZHANSKY

Evaluation of aircraft and aircraft. General requirements - page 2/2

5. The procedure for assessing aircraft

5.1. Collection and analysis of preliminary information about the object, the purpose and date of the assessment, the owner and operator (tenant) of the aircraft, the customer of the assessment.

5.2. Conclusion of an appraisal contract

5.3. Classification of the object of assessment. The classification of the aircraft is carried out in accordance with clause 4 of this standard, using, if necessary, additional classification features and specialized classifiers.

5.4. Identification and development of an expert opinion - an act on the technical condition of the object of assessment. The analysis of forms, passports and similar documents containing the identification characteristics of the objects of assessment, documents confirming the rights of ownership or operation (lease), inspection and identification of objects at their locations is carried out.

An expert commission is formed, an examination plan is developed and approved, which, if necessary, may include special tests, defect detection and other work permitted by the current regulations. Based on the results of the work, an expert opinion is developed - an act on the technical condition of the object of assessment.

5.5. Collection and analysis of general data. Data is collected and analyzed that characterizes the socio-economic conditions of operation of the assessed aircraft, the state of the corresponding market segment, changes international requirements on ensuring flight safety and environmental restrictions, as well as other factors affecting the estimated value of the facility.

5.6. Collection and analysis of special data. Technical, operational and economic information is collected and analyzed on the evaluated aircraft and its analogues that have appeared on the market in the last period of time. Data collection was carried out by studying the relevant documentation, consultations with specialists from competent organizations.

5.7. Analysis of the best and most effective use. The conclusion about the best and most efficient use at the date of the assessment is based on an analysis of the information collected, taking into account the existing and planned for the near future restrictions on the use of the assessed and similar aircraft.

5.8. The choice of methods for assessing the object. The choice of general approaches (cost, market and income) and special methods is determined by the purpose of the assessment, the completeness and reliability of the initial information available and necessary for the application of each method, as well as the terms of the contract for the assessment. If necessary, modification of existing or development of new special assessment methods is carried out (with justification of their methodological correctness and accuracy).

5.9. Carrying out calculations and analysis of results. Calculations are carried out to evaluate the object by various methods and analysis of the results. Collect if necessary additional information, adjustment of estimation methods and additional calculations. Then a decision is made on the value of the object.

5.10. Preparing an appraisal report and submitting it to the customer.

6. The content of the initial information used in the evaluation of aircraft

The initial information recommended for use in the evaluation of aircraft includes the following groups.

6.1. Identification characteristics of the object of assessment:

- Name;

- type of;

– registration (account) number;

– factory (serial) number;

- Release date;

- name of the manufacturer;

– name and address of the owner;

- a copy (details) of the document on the right of ownership;

- name and address of the operator (lessee);

– a copy (details) of the document for the right to operate (lease).

6.2. History of the object of assessment:

– date of commissioning;

- initial cost at the date of commissioning (historical cost);

- information about previous owners, operators (tenants), form of ownership and its changes;

– book value according to the data accounting;

- information on the overhauls carried out (dates, type, repair company), accidents, enterprises that performed maintenance and repairs, data on compliance with the regulations for maintenance and repair, storage, etc.

6.3. The main flight performance (flight tactical) characteristics are a set of quantitative indicators that determine the ability of aircraft to fulfill their intended purpose.

For transport aircraft, the main performance characteristics that affect the cost estimate are: the number of passengers, the layout of the passenger cabin, carrying capacity, dimensions of cargo compartments, flight range at maximum payload and maximum fuel capacity, aerodrome class, cruising speed. For transport helicopters, the maximum carrying capacity, cargo compartment dimensions, practical range, speed and static ceiling. For spacecraft - the speed of launching into space orbit, the mass and dimensions of the payload launched into orbit.

For combat aircraft, tactical flight characteristics include most of the characteristics listed above, as well as combat survivability, combat effectiveness, visibility, etc.

6.4. Characteristics of the power plant. Type, quantity, power (thrust) of power plants (engines), type of fuel, consumption characteristics.

6.5. Characteristics of control systems. Composition of airborne flight and navigation equipment and communications equipment, guidance systems, etc.

6.6. Equipment characteristics. Composition and characteristics of passenger and cargo equipment, equipment for the use of aviation in the national economy, special equipment, etc.

6.7. Characteristics of the operating system:

- fuel consumption;

- the presence and number of crew members;

– specific operating costs (the cost of a flight hour, launch, etc.);

– type of maintenance and repair system (scheduled preventive maintenance, maintenance and repair “on condition”, etc.);

- the cost of repairs.

6.8. Resources set for the type of aircraft being assessed. The assessment takes into account the following types of resources (definitions are given in paragraph 3) in hours (minutes) of flight (work), flights (flight cycles, switching cycles), in calendar service life (in years) and other parameters:

– technical resource (or resource before decommissioning);

– assigned resource;

- the assigned resource before the first overhaul;

- assigned overhaul life;

is a guaranteed resource.

6.9. Technical condition. The technical condition report (expert opinion) must contain the following data:

- the composition of the commission, indicating the positions, date, signatures of the chairman and members of the commission, certified by the seal of the organization that formed the commission;

- identification characteristics of the object of assessment, its main units and components, which have a significant impact on the value of the object;

– object location;

- resources established for the object of assessment - before write-off (technical resources), assigned resources, assigned and guaranteed resources before the first repair and overhaul, data on the extension of resources and other parameters necessary for the assessment purposes, established for the object being evaluated by the relevant acts recorded in the forms, passports and similar documents;

- the operating time of the aircraft and its separately evaluated elements (from the beginning of operation and after the last repair;

- Remaining resources before repair (taking into account the extension);

– data on compliance with maintenance and repair regulations;

- data on the repairs carried out;

- data on the last forms of maintenance and storage work carried out;

- completeness of the object;

- a list of removed units and assemblies;

- a list of malfunctions of units and assemblies;

- the actual technical condition of the object;

The conclusion of the act should contain a conclusion about the possibility of further operation of the facility and the necessary measures to restore the operability of faulty, depleted overhaul resources, stored or mothballed facilities.

6.10. Characteristics of environmental impact. The characteristics of the aircraft and the current restrictions on noise on the ground, emissions of harmful substances in environment as a result of engine operation, by microwave radiation, the presence of toxic substances in the fuel and the possibility of their release into the environment during normal operation or a disaster, etc.

6.11. The legal, organizational and economic bases for the operation of aircraft regulated by laws and other normative acts that have a significant impact on the cost:

- documentation allowing the admission of aircraft for operation (for civil aircraft, aircraft engines and propellers - type certificates, airworthiness certificates (certificate of airworthiness) or an equivalent document of airworthiness, certificate of state registration (accounting), etc. .p. Civil aircraft, aircraft engines and propellers manufactured in a foreign country and delivered to the Russian Federation for operation are certified in accordance with federal aviation regulations). In the absence of an appropriate permit, data on the costs of financial resources and time to obtain it (certification, licensing, state registration, accounting, etc. . is produced, as a rule, on a reimbursable basis and can significantly affect the valuation);

- current and planned for the introduction of environmental regulations that prohibit or restrict the operation of aircraft in the relevant territory;

– current and planned restrictions that ensure flight safety, including the safety of air traffic control, etc.

6.12. Characteristics of the aircraft market. The state of production, the primary and secondary market of the assessed aircraft and its analogues, the rental market of the assessed aircraft, as well as the current state restrictions on the sale of certain special types of aircraft, their elements and technologies are taken into account.

7. Typical methods for assessing, analyzing and reporting assessment results

7.1. Types of value. Depending on the purpose of the assessment, the following types of value are determined: market, investment, liquidation, insurance, disposal, value for taxation, collateral, scrap metal (scrap), etc.

7.2. Methods (approaches) of evaluation. When evaluating aircraft, the following approaches can be used: costly, comparative analysis sales and income.

7.3. Cost approach. When using the cost approach, the cost of an object is determined by the costs of its creation, acquisition, commissioning, modification and disposal, taking into account all types of wear and tear.

The basis for valuation is:

– replacement cost - the cost of reproduction of a copy of an aircraft or its element in prices as of the date of assessment;

– replacement cost - the cost of an analogue of the appraisal object in prices as of the appraisal date;

– residual value the subtraction of all types of depreciation from the replacement cost of an object or the replacement cost of an analogue is determined.

When evaluating aircraft, the following methods can be implemented:

– comparative unit cost (holistic assessment);

– the cost of enlarged elements (estimates by parts).

7.3.1. Determination of replacement cost. The replacement cost for aircraft or their elements mass-produced at the time of evaluation is the cost of manufacturing a new aircraft (element), the type and characteristics of which fully coincide with the object being evaluated.

For aircraft (or their elements), the serial production of which was terminated as of the assessment date, as a rule, the replacement cost of the analogue is taken as the basis - the minimum cost of manufacturing (in current prices) of a similar new aircraft (element), as close as possible to that considered for all functional, design and performance characteristics relevant to its present use. The requirement to minimize the cost means choosing as a substitute not any, but an analogue that is minimally sufficient in terms of its characteristics.

Determination of the replacement cost of an object in a costly way can be carried out using the following methods:

– comparisons with selling prices (offer prices) manufacturer;

– quantitative analysis (costing);

– analysis and updating of the existing calculation;

- calculation according to consolidated standards.

Note. For modern complex aircraft manufactured by multi-purpose aerospace complexes, it is very difficult to apply the methods of quantitative analysis, update the calculation and calculate according to the aggregated standards using resource-technological models. They can be used for fairly simple aircraft. To determine the cost of reproduction of modern complex aircraft, information on the prices offered by manufacturers is mainly used.

7.3.2. Aircraft Wear Determination

With a costly method of determining the cost, it is necessary to take into account the amount of physical, functional and external wear.

If it is possible to restore lost consumer properties, wear is divided into removable and irreparable.

Irreparable wear corresponds to deficiencies, the correction of which is currently practically impossible or not economically feasible.

Removable wear is measured by the cost of removing it.

7.3.2.1. The physical deterioration of an aircraft is a depreciation associated with a decrease in its performance and reliability as a result of both natural physical aging and the influence of external adverse factors.

According to the form of manifestation, wear is divided into technical, expressed in a decrease (in comparison with the normative, passport level) of the actual values ​​of technical and economic parameters, and constructive, which is understood as an increase in structural fatigue of the main components and parts that increase the likelihood of emergency failures, as well as a decrease in protective properties of external coatings.

The degree of physical wear is determined by the following methods.

– observation method- an accurate method for determining wear, based on the study of the relevant objects, their testing, the assessment of the actual wear of the most important components and assemblies by means of objective control, etc. The degree of actual physical depreciation of the object of assessment is determined as the average of the depreciation of its most important components and assemblies, weighted by their share in the total initial or replacement cost. The observation method is most applicable to determining impairment due to wear and tear of aircraft that are maintained and repaired “on condition”;

– direct methods- methods for determining the degree of wear according to the required costs for restoration (repair), based on the actual and standard operating time, according to the degree of reduction in consumer properties or technical characteristics ranging from standard to maximum permissible values;

– effective age method- an indirect method based on a comparison of the standard and the remaining service life. It is most applicable to the preventive maintenance and repair of aircraft.

When determining the physical wear and tear of an aircraft, the following features of the object of assessment should be taken into account:

1) preservation of the main flight performance from the moment of issue to decommissioning for given level;

2) maintaining from the moment of issue to the decommissioning of flight safety, operability and reliability at a level not lower than that specified by the technical documentation confirming the airworthiness for the considered type and copy of the aircraft;

3) any physical deterioration of the elements of the aircraft, leading to a violation of the requirements of paragraphs. 1 and 2) must be promptly eliminated by the maintenance and repair system (primarily by replacing failed elements in the process of pre-flight and post-flight maintenance) to maintain a constant level of aircraft performance as a whole, regardless of the level of performance and physical wear and tear of its individual elements;

4) determining the degree of structural wear of the most loaded non-removable units of the airframe and engines, their repair or replacement is carried out in the process of special forms of maintenance and repair, including overhaul;

5) during the overhaul of an aircraft (element), as a rule, not complete, but partial elimination of physical (including structural) wear is ensured, which determines the limitation of durability (service life);

6) in accordance with paragraphs. 1-5) the main flight performance and main consumer properties of the aircraft are maintained at a given level from production to retirement, therefore, depreciation - unrecoverable physical wear and tear on operating time is determined mainly by a reduction in possible operating time over the remaining useful life;

7) aircraft elements having a modular design (providing the possibility of prompt replacement of failed modules during pre-flight preparation without decommissioning of the main element) must satisfy conditions similar to paragraphs. 1-4) for the aircraft as a whole. Therefore, they are fully covered by a conclusion similar to paragraph 6) - the irremovable physical wear and tear on the operating time is determined mainly by the reduction in the possible operating time for the remaining useful life;

8) elements (assemblies) of the aircraft, having a non-modular design, must satisfy the conditions similar to paragraphs 1, 2, 4, 5), but do not comply with the conditions of paragraph 3), since in case of failure or depletion of overhaul resources, they are removed from operation on an aircraft for repairs. In the event that with an increase in operating time as a result of physical wear, the failure rate increases, there is an increase in the time spent by the unit in repair and the cost of repairs. Therefore, the depreciation of units as a result of irremovable physical wear and tear on operating time is determined not only by reducing the possible operating time for the period of remaining useful life, but also by additional deterioration in consumer properties - the level of uptime and the cost of repairs;

9) during the overhaul of the structure of the main elements (assemblies) of the aircraft, as a rule, an irreparable deterioration in the level of their reliability occurs, which leads to additional physical irreparable wear as a result of the repair impact;

10) a preventive maintenance and repair system for aircraft (elements) provides for a regulated frequency and scope of maintenance and repair forms, as well as a normatively established durability (service life) before decommissioning;

11) the system of operation of aircraft "on condition" does not have directive established periods of maintenance and repair, as well as restrictions on the overall service life; the elimination of physical wear and tear in the process of maintenance and repair is carried out mainly in the event that the measured actual degree of technical wear and tear exceeds the permissible level established for a particular unit; operation is carried out as long as it is technically possible and economically feasible.

Example 1 preventive maintenance and repair system.

The degree of irremovable physical wear and tear is determined by the dependence

Fn = (NL - RL)/ NL = EA/ (EA + RL), (1)

Fn - the degree of irremovable physical wear;

NL - duration of economic life (service life, durability);

RL is the remaining useful life;

EA - effective age.

The physical wear of an aircraft during normal operation is mainly determined by the operating time in flight and on the ground, as well as the processes of aging and corrosion of materials that depend on calendar time.

The service life with a preventive maintenance and repair system for each of the parameters of operating time and calendar service life specified in clause 3 of this standard is determined by the maximum value of two values: technical and assigned resource.

The remaining useful life is determined by the estimated remaining life before decommissioning.

Determining the effective age is practically reduced to determining the service life, estimating the remaining useful life and calculating their difference.

For satisfying the conditions of paragraphs. 1-4) and the conclusions of paragraphs 6.7) to aircraft and their elements (which include: the aircraft as a whole; the main long-lived element that determines the functioning and service life of the aircraft (for example, the airframe of an aircraft, which includes the cost of all components and units, with the exception of separately evaluated short-lived elements); evaluated separately short-lived elements (for example, engines) having a modular design), the methodology is based on the following provisions.

1. The effective service life according to the operating time strictly coincides with the actual operating time reflected in the documentation from the moment of issue, and the remaining useful life and the degree of irremovable physical wear are determined by the dependencies:

RL i = NL i - A i , (2)

Fn i = A i / NL i , (3)

A - actual operating time since the release of the aircraft;

i - index of operating time (for flying hours i=1, for the number of flights i=2, etc.).

The remaining designations coincide with the designations of dependence (1).

2. When assessing the degree of irremovable physical wear and tear in terms of calendar time, the remaining useful life is estimated taking into account the possible operating time of each of the life-limiting resources for the remaining calendar time. The remaining useful life and the degree of wear are calculated according to the following dependencies:

RLk i = max (NLk - Ak - Tm, NLk (NLk - Ak - Tm) R i / NL i ), (4)

Fnk i = max (0, 1 - RLk i / NLk), (5)

RLk i - the term of the remaining useful life in calendar time, determined taking into account the possible operating time of the resource with index i for the calendar time remaining before decommissioning;

Fnk i - the degree of irremovable physical wear on calendar time, determined taking into account the possible operating time of the resource with index i ;

NLk - duration of economic life (service life) in calendar time;

Ak - calendar time from the moment of issue;

Tm is the calendar time required to complete the act of transferring ownership, preparing for operation, as well as issuing an air operator certificate (or similar document) when changing ownership (when determining cost in use without transfer of rights property Tm = 0);

R i - life time with index i per unit of calendar time (annual flight hours, number of flights, engine starts per year, etc.), technically possible and realistically feasible under operating conditions (taking into account the principle of the best and most efficient use).

The maximum value is taken as the calculated value of the degree of irremovable physical wear

Fnr = max(Fn i , Fnk i: i = 1,..., n ). (6)

For satisfying the conditions of paragraphs. 1,2,4,5 and the conclusions of paragraph 8 of the elements of aircraft, the calculation of the degree of irremovable physical wear of individual units and components can be carried out for each type of operating time and calendar time according to the general dependence (1) with an assessment of the difference between the effective age and the actual age according to special models, taking into account technical features of the evaluated unit, as well as statistical data on changes in the reliability and cost of repairs.

For example, for motors, a dependency like

Fn i = (A i / NL i) N + Fr(A i , OMr i), (7)

A - actual operating time since the engine was released;

i - index of operating time (for hours of operation i=1, for the number of cycles i=2, for the calendar service life i=3, etc.);

N is the exponent;

Fr(A i , OMr i) - the degree of additional irremovable physical wear as a result of the repair impact;

OMr i - the value of the balance between overhauls with index i .

The maximum value for i is taken as the calculated degree of wear.

Fatal physical wear and tear is determined by the product of the replacement cost by the degree of irreparable wear and tear.

Removable depreciation includes the "removal cost" as well as the present value of the deferred scheduled overhaul.

Elimination cost - the costs that would be required to replace or repair malfunctions to a state in which the depreciation of components and assemblies would be determined only by irreparable wear and tear. The cost of eliminating design and manufacturing defects during the validity of the guaranteed resource that applies to the defect in question is not included in the removable wear, since it must be eliminated at the expense of the manufacturer (supplier).

Present value of deferred planned capital repairs operable at the time of evaluation of units and assemblies is calculated according to the dependencies:

ADu=? (Su j + Cr j (max ((Mr ji - OMr ji) / (Mr ji (1 + I) T ji): i = 1,...,n ))), (8)

T ji = OMr ji / R ji , (9)

ADu - removable physical wear;

Su j - cost of troubleshooting unit with index j ;

Cr j - the cost of the planned overhaul of the unit with the index j ;

Mr ji - the value of the overhaul life with index i of the unit with index j;

OMr ji - the value of the remaining resource before repair with index i of the unit with index j;

I - discount rate;

T ji - estimated value of the time interval before the planned overhaul of the unit with index j, determined by the balance of the resource with index i before repair;

R ji - operating time of the aggregate with index j of resource with index i per unit of calendar time.

If the remaining service life before decommissioning is less than the established overhaul life, then the subsequent overhaul is not planned and its cost should not be included in the depreciation.

Note. The method described above for determining physical wear and tear can be used in the system of aircraft operation "by condition". At the same time, for the service life before write-off, the remaining resources before repair and the cost of scheduled repairs, instead of the regulated values, it is necessary to use predictive statistical data, for example, mathematical expectations of the values ​​of the corresponding parameters included in dependencies (1) - (9).

Depending on the specifics of the aircraft and the purpose of the assessment, the calculation of physical wear and tear can be carried out:

- for the aircraft as a whole, according to the characteristics of the resources of the main long-lived element that determines the functioning and service life of the aircraft (for example, an aircraft airframe);

- by aggregated elements: for the main long-lived element (including the cost of all components and assemblies, with the exception of separately evaluated elements) and for separately evaluated short-lived elements (for example, engines);

– element-by-element calculation for aggregates, assemblies, equipment, etc. (for example, when determining the salvage value of an aircraft as a whole or the cost of elements of a decommissioned aircraft that are intended for use as spare parts and consumables).

With moderate degrees of wear of the aircraft (the main element), the error caused by this is not significant for the assessment. If the object of appraisal or an equivalent is close to being written off, a more detailed accounting of the physical wear and tear of elements suitable for further operation and the cost of scrap metal (scrap) of the elements, units and equipment being written off is necessary.

The physical depreciation of the aircraft is determined by the sum of the irremovable and removable physical depreciation of all assessed elements.

The ratio of the total physical wear and tear to the full replacement cost of the object determines the degree of physical wear F.

7.3.2.2. Functional depreciation is the loss of value caused by the appearance of either cheaper (in terms of the total cost of both investment and operational) aircraft or other vehicles. Functional depreciation also includes loss of value as a result of non-compliance of the characteristics of the aircraft in question with modern general and regional standards or requirements for ensuring flight safety, environmental restrictions, market requirements for comfort and quality of passenger service, etc. For the purposes of the analysis, functional wear is considered to be caused by:

- shortcomings that require the addition of elements to eliminate them;

- deficiencies that require replacement or modernization of elements to eliminate them.

Removable functional wear is measured by the cost of its elimination due to structural modifications of the aircraft, permitted by the current documentation, revision bulletins, etc.

Elements requiring additions include equipment and units that are not in the existing aircraft and without which it does not meet modern standards or market requirements and therefore can only be operated with significant restrictions. A quantitative measure of functional depreciation is the difference in the total cost of installing the relevant equipment on the aircraft being evaluated and installing this or similar equipment in the serial production of the aircraft, taken as an analogue for determining the replacement cost.

Elements requiring replacement or modernization include equipment, units and assemblies that still perform their functions, but no longer meet modern standards and market requirements. In this case, functional depreciation is defined as the sum of the cost of new equipment minus the cost of existing equipment (taking into account its physical deterioration and the possibility of its further use at other facilities), the full cost of installing the upgraded and dismantling the existing equipment.

Irremovable functional wear corresponds to shortcomings, the correction of which is currently practically impossible or not economically feasible.

The most common and reasonable method for determining irremovable functional depreciation is the method of capitalization of loss of income or increase in costs (including investment costs) during the operation of the evaluated aircraft from the moment of assessment to write-off.

The main task in the calculation of functional wear is to take into account significant improvements in the flight performance, operational and economic characteristics of the analogue compared to the evaluated aircraft, which cannot be eliminated by modernization for technical or economic reasons. The general methodological approach to its solution is the assessment of differences in the calculated (reduced to the same conditions) performance, and in the service life of the evaluated aircraft and its analogue, which determine the amount of investment required to perform the same amount of work (achieving a given operation goal), as well as the loss profit from the difference in operating costs during the economic life.

Example 2. A typical method for determining the irremovable functional wear of a passenger aircraft.

Dependences

ADvn = CNb((1 - Nc Kc / (Nb Kb) (Vc/Vb) a (Hc / Hb) b) +

Vn (1- NLc / NLb × Hb / Hc))+(1-Vn) Do/ I, (10)

Vn = 1 / (1+I) NLc / Hc, (11)

Do = Hc (Chc - Chb Nc Vc Kc / (Nb Vb Kb)) (1 - Np), (12)

ADvn - functional depreciation of passenger aircraft due to differences in the main characteristics compared to the analogue;

CNb - analogue price;

Nb, Nc - passenger capacity of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft, respectively, with similar layouts of the passenger cabin;

Kb, Kc - coefficients of occupancy of analogue and aircraft seats;

Vb, Vc - cruising speeds of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft, respectively;

Hb, Hc - flight hours per year of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft;

a, b - exponents, taking into account the influence of differences in cruising speeds and annual flight hours (depending on the type of aircraft);

NLc - the economic life of the aircraft in flying hours;

NLb - economic life of the analogue in flying hours;

Chb, Chc - the cost of the flight hour of the analogue and the evaluated aircraft;

Vn is the present value of the monetary unit at the end of the economic life of the assessed aircraft;

I - discount rate;

Do - loss of profit for the year;

Np - income tax rate.

The ratio of the sum of irremovable and removable functional wear to the total replacement cost of the aircraft determines the degree of physical wear V.

7.3.2.3. External wear - depreciation of the aircraft as a result of changes in the external economic situation (market, legislative, financial conditions, etc.).

External wear is determined by two methods:

– comparison of sales of similar objects with and without external influences;

– capitalization of loss of income (increase in expenses) related to external impact.

The method of capitalizing the loss of income or profit requires determining the factors that affect the value, and the characteristics of their change under the influence of external conditions. The quantitative assessment of external depreciation is reduced to determining the true value of the loss of income for the period of time from the moment of assessment to the termination of the operation of the aircraft.

An additional type of external depreciation is depreciation as a result of the transition of the aircraft from the primary to the secondary market.

The cumulative impairment as a result of external influences determines the amount of external depreciation.

The ratio of external wear to replacement cost determines the degree of external wear E.

7.3.3. The residual value of an aircraft (element) is determined by the replacement cost of a copy of the appraised object or its analogue, taking into account all types of wear and tear.

Example 3. Typical methodology for determining the residual value.

The determination of the residual value at the replacement cost of a copy of the appraisal object is carried out according to the dependencies:

CD = CNc (1 - S) (11)

S = 1 - (1 - V) (1 - E) (1 - F), (12)

CD - residual value;

CNc - replacement cost of a copy of the appraisal object;

S is the degree of cumulative wear;

F, V, E - expressed in shares of the degree of physical, functional and economic depreciation, obtained by dividing the corresponding types of depreciation by the replacement cost of a copy of the object of assessment CNс.

The determination of the residual value of the aircraft at the replacement cost of the analogue is carried out as follows.

In the case of calculating the physical depreciation of the object of assessment as a whole (without separate accounting for the depreciation of the main long-lived and short-lived elements), the residual value is determined similarly to dependencies (11), (12):

CD = CNb (1 - S), (13)

S = 1 - (1 - V) (1 - E) (1 - F), (14)

CNb - replacement cost of the object of appraisal analogue;

S is the degree of cumulative wear;

F, V, E - expressed in shares of the degree of physical, functional and economic impairment, obtained by dividing the corresponding types of depreciation by the replacement cost of the analogue of the subject property CNb.

In the case of calculating the physical wear of an object by the element-by-element accounting of the wear of the main long-lived and short-lived elements the residual value is determined according to the dependencies:

CD = CN (1 - S 1), (15)

CN = CNb - ADVb = CNb (1 - ADVb / CNb), (16)

S 1 \u003d 1 - (1 - V 1) (1 - E 1) (1 - F 1), (17)

ADVb - functional wear of the object of assessment relative to the analogue;

CN - estimated replacement cost of the appraised object;

S 1 - the degree of cumulative wear;

V 1 - expressed in shares, the degree of functional wear of the analogue relative to modern market requirements, obtained by dividing the corresponding type of wear by the estimated replacement cost;

F 1 , E 1 - expressed in shares of the degree of physical and economic depreciation, obtained by dividing the corresponding types of depreciation by the estimated replacement cost CN.

7.4. Sales comparison method

The sales comparison method is based on the analysis of sales data and offers for aircraft similar to the property being valued.

Methods applied:

– direct comparison with a close analogue;

– statistical price modeling.

When applying the method of direct comparison with an analogue, adjustments are made to the sales price of the object of comparison for the following positions.

1. Ownership. Ownership restrictions apply.

2. Terms of financing. Calculation conditions that affect the cost of the object are taken into account.

3. Conditions of sale. The adjustment for the terms of sale reflects the relationship between the seller and the buyer that is not typical for the market.

4. The state of the market. The market adjustment takes into account changes in market conditions that occur over time: inflation, deflation, changes in tax laws, changes in supply and demand, etc. One of the significant factors is the reduction in prices during the transition of the object to the secondary market. The economic crisis, which determines the decline in demand for transportation, may also contribute to lower prices.

5. Physical characteristics. Almost always, the objects of comparison have different physical characteristics: flight performance, assigned resource, operating time from the beginning of operation and after repair, the presence of additional equipment that expands functionality, etc.

The list of the main physical characteristics that should be taken into account when adjusting the sale price is determined by the specifics of the aircraft, the compliance of the appraised object and its analogue with the current and planned restrictions, standards and regulations, etc. in the near future.

6. Economic characteristics. Economic characteristics include those that affect the amount of net current income - the cost of a flight hour and its components, terms and conditions of lease, etc.

7. Use. When choosing objects of comparison, one should refuse those that, after the sale, are not used in the same way as the object of evaluation.

8. Non-aircraft cost components. The cost of equipment not related to the aircraft must be accounted for separately and separated from the cost of objects of evaluation and comparison.

The specifics of applying the method of direct comparison of sales for evaluating aircraft is associated with taking into account the characteristics of the market, using dependencies (1) - (9) for adjustments for physical wear and tear, elements of dependencies (10) - (12) for adjusting the cost of analogues for the main flight technical, operational and economic characteristics, as well as methods similar to methods for determining functional wear to adjust sales prices in case of a difference in the composition of the equipment of the evaluated aircraft and its analogue.

When adjusting the sale price according to the degree of physical depreciation of the appraised object and its analogue, determined by dependencies (1) - (9), it should be taken into account that the sale price of an aircraft with a significant degree of depreciation can be determined as the use value of its use for its intended purpose, and disposal cost.

When assessing the physical wear of an aircraft as a whole and with an enlarged account of physical wear for several main elements, the degree of physical wear of a significant part of expensive units and equipment is determined by the resources and operating time of the main element that includes them (for example, an aircraft airframe). In addition, the cost of scrap metal and scrap is not taken into account.

Example 4. A typical method for adjusting the cost of sale according to the degree of physical depreciation of the appraised object and analogue, if it is necessary to take into account the disposal costs of the appraised object and analogue.

The value of the object of assessment by the method of direct comparison of sales is determined by the dependence

Co = (Cb - Ub) (1 - Fo) / (1 - Fb) + Uo, (18)

Co - value of the object of assessment;

Cb - the cost of selling an analogue;

Ub - part of the utilization cost of the analogue, not taken into account when determining the degree of physical deterioration of the analogue;

Uo - part of the utilization value of the object of assessment, not taken into account when determining the degree of physical deterioration of the object;

Fo - the degree of physical deterioration of the object;

Fb - the degree of physical wear of the analogue.

The method of statistical price modeling is used in the absence of direct analogues. The use of correlation-regression analysis of the cost of sales of aircraft allows you to identify the main (statistically significant) parameters and develop dependencies to determine the value of the object.

7.5. The income approach is based on an assessment of the investor's expectations and the calculation of the current (discounted) value of the economic benefits expected from the ownership of the assets being assessed.

Capitalization of income can be done in two ways.

The direct capitalization method converts annual income into value by multiplying annual income by the capitalization rate.

The rate of return capitalization method converts future benefits into present value by discounting each future benefit by an appropriate rate of return to reflect the sequence of income flows, changes in the value of property and income, and the rate of return itself.

The main method is capitalization by the rate of return.

The assessment includes the following main steps.

7.5.1. Collection and analysis of information on real costs and revenues from the operation of the type of aircraft under consideration for the period preceding the date of assessment, using the principle of the best and most efficient use.

7.5.2. Development of a reconstructed income statement based on accounting data - net operating income and market data. To determine the net operating income used for valuation purposes, the following items should be excluded from the financial statements:

– business-related expenses (not related to the cost of the aircraft);

– accounting depreciation;

– corporate expenses (payment of dividends, etc.);

– capital investments and expenses for capital repairs.

7.5.3. Choice of evaluation method. If there are statistical data on specific operating costs (for example, the cost of a flight hour, the cost of launching, etc.), taking into account all the costs of the ground complex related to the assessed aircraft, the cost of one aircraft is calculated taking into account the cost of components provided for regulations to ensure operation.

Otherwise, the residual method is used, taking into account individual factors of income generation for the main elements included in the aircraft operation system.

7.5.4. Development of a forecast of changes in income, expenses, property value and the expected rate of return for the period of alleged ownership of the property being valued.

The following data must be taken into account:

- macro- and microeconomic forecasts of general and structural inflation, development of the economy and transport, supply and demand for work performed by the assessed object, changes in the structure of operating costs, taxation systems, etc.

- forecasts of changes in the rate of interest and the rate of return, characterizing the risks in the considered market segment;

- forecasts of resource development, repair time and decommissioning of the aircraft and its main short-lived elements (based on the current maintenance and repair regulations), data on technically possible and realistically feasible operating times in similar operating conditions, data on performance degradation during periods of repair, etc. P.;

– cost forecasts overhauls, capital investments for the acquisition of short-lived elements (in exchange for exhausted resources);

- data on the cost of the working capital of components and equipment necessary to ensure uninterrupted operation (for example, a reserve of engines);

– reversion forecasts - the residual value of the aircraft (in case of termination of the project before its decommissioning) or the salvage value of the aircraft in the event of its decommissioning.

7.5.5. Justification and choice of the degree of risk - discount rates.

7.5.6. Carrying out calculations of the cost of an aircraft based on the condition of equality of the initial investment (the price of an aircraft and the cost of the working capital of components and equipment) to the amount of discounted cash flows, taking into account reversion.

8. Making a decision on the assessment of the cost of the aircraft.

The process of making a decision on assessing the market value of an aircraft is not a formal act and includes the following main steps.

8.1. Analysis of the completeness and reliability of the initial information used for each method.

8.2. Ranking of the applied evaluation methods according to the criteria:

– compliance with the purpose of the assessment;

- provision of reliable information;

- differences in the main parameters of the object being evaluated from analogues, the characteristics and cost of which are used in the assessment.

8.3. Determination of upper and lower cost estimation constraints.

8.4. Comparison of the obtained cost range with the data on the evaluation of the errors of the valuation method, as well as with other additional data.

8.5. Making an expert decision.

In the valuation report in accordance with Article 11 of the Federal Law “On valuation activities in the Russian Federation” No. 135-F3 dated 29.07.98. must be specified:

– date of compilation and serial number of the report;

- the basis for the appraiser to evaluate the object of appraisal;

- the legal address of the appraiser and information about the license issued to him to carry out appraisal activities for this type of property;

– an accurate description of the subject of appraisal, and in relation to the subject of appraisal owned by a legal entity, details legal entity and book value of the subject property;

- valuation standards for determining the appropriate type of value of the valuation object, the rationale for their use in the valuation of this valuation object, the list of data used in the valuation of the valuation object, indicating the sources of their receipt, as well as the assumptions made during the valuation of the valuation object;

- the sequence of determining the value of the object of assessment and its final value, as well as the limitations and limits of the application of the result obtained;

– date of determination of the value of the appraisal object;

- a list of documents used by the appraiser and establishing the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the appraisal object.

Composition and form corresponding to the general requirements of the above federal law data and sections of the report on the assessment of the aircraft are contained in paragraphs. 6, 7 and 8 of this standard.

The report may also contain other information that, in the opinion of the appraiser, is essential for the completeness of the reflection of the method used by him to calculate the value of a particular object of appraisal.

Example 5. Contents of a typical report on the assessment of the market value of an aircraft.

Brief summary of the main facts and conclusions.

Basic assumptions and limiting conditions.

Information about the object of evaluation.

1. Determination of market value.

2. Scope and stages of the study.

3. History of the object.

4. Description of the object.

5. Characteristics of the market at the valuation date.

6. Determination of market value.

6.1. Cost method.

6.2. Sales comparison method.

6.3. income capitalization method.

6.3. Making a decision on estimating the cost of the aircraft.

Market Value Certificate.

Applications.

10. Deviation conditions.

If a valuer is required to perform an engagement that is inconsistent with these Standards, the valuer should do so if:

10.1. The Valuer will determine that the results of the work will not mislead the client, users of the Valuer's report or services, or the public.

10.2. The Valuer will make the client aware that the engagement involves special assumptions or departures from the standards, which must be fully reflected in the report and/or third party representations made by the Valuer as a result of the work.

10.3. As a condition of the contract, the Valuer will require that any document published with reference to the Valuer's opinion contains a statement of all assumptions and deviations from the Standards.