Basic research. Arbitration manager is a highly paid and sought-after type of professional activity. Theoretical aspects of insolvency and bankruptcy

1

Variety and versatility anti-crisis measures creates difficulty in identifying the most effective and efficient ways to overcome the crisis. Model development crisis management personnel and its inclusion in the activities of the management system is due to the crisis itself and the subsequent decline in economic indicators and development prospects. The essence of anti-crisis personnel management, including employees, employers and other owners of the enterprise is to establish the main factors of management effectiveness in a crisis. These relationships are based on the principles, methods and forms of influencing the interests, behavior and activities of employees in order to maximize their use. The crisis management model is associated with the disclosure of the necessary individual potentials and includes professional and personal blocks.

control

anti-crisis personnel management

anti-crisis response model

professional and personal potential

1. Gutsykova S.V. The relationship between integrative professionally important qualities and personal characteristics of specialists with different performance effectiveness: abstract. dis. ...cand. ps. Sci. – M.: Institute of Psychology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2012. – 30 p.

2. Zabrodin, Yu.M., Kulapov M.N., Odegov Yu.G. Human psychology and personnel management // Bulletin of the Russian Economic University. G.V. Plekhanov. – 2005. – No. 2. – P. 53–67.

3. Okhotnikov O.V. Philosophical foundations of the organization’s personnel policy // Personnel policy organizations: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. – Vol. 1. – Ekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. – P. 8–19.

4. Ponomareva O.Ya. Application of the competency model as a direction of personnel policy: from theory to practice // Personnel policy of the organization: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. – Vol. 1. – Ekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. – P. 29–39.

5. Prozorova, O.N. “Psychology of the Self” by E. Erikson and logotherapy by W. Frankl in personnel management: comparative analysis // Actual problems humanities. – Tomsk, 2013. – pp. 269–271.

6. Ryabov O.A. Modeling of processes and systems: tutorial. – Krasnoyarsk, 2008. – 122 p.

7. Smirnov V.K. Psychology of personnel management in extreme conditions: a textbook. – M., 2007.

8. Tokareva Yu.A. Management consulting as an element of systemic personnel policy // Personnel policy of the organization: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. – Vol. 1. – Ekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. – P. 148–155.

At the present stage of development of the psychological side economic processes the problem of developing a model of anti-crisis personnel management is being updated, revealing the idea of ​​maintaining a stable social form during economic crisis experienced by Russia. Along with the fact that such developments are not uncommon for scientific research work in the field of personnel management, the great merit of scientists is to pay attention to the analysis of the psychological component of the activities of personnel management services (A.P. Gradov, Yu.M. Zabrodin, O.N. Prozorova, V.K. Smirnov, etc.). Management psychology and the related task of psychological modeling are just beginning to be developed in Russia. psychological school and significant contribution to this direction contribute research containing guidelines necessary for understanding the processes of the personnel component of enterprises (O.E. Alyokhina, Yu.I. Bogdanov, T.Yu. Bazarov, A.Ya. Kibanov, O.V. Okhotnikov, etc.). Modeling the process of crisis management, including the development of the professional and personal potential of the personnel of the enterprise, is based, first of all, on the established didactic essence and features of this process, which have their own specifics during the period of reforms and social crises (T.K. Kovalenko, O.A. Ryabov , Yu.A. Tokareva, A.E. Fedorova, etc.).

A model is understood as such a mentally represented or materially realized system, which, by displaying or reproducing the object of study, is capable of replacing it so that its study gives us new information about this object. The basis of the anti-crisis personnel management model is the processes of developing the professional and personal potential of employees through psychological technologies, various forms, methods, principles, criteria, components, functions and educational modules.

Considering the existing developments in the field of crisis management based on the personal and professional realization of a specialist, by now the contradictions between:

Numerous research papers that address issues professional activity in conditions of crises and stress and requirements for its implementation, and insufficient representation of works that characterize the idea of ​​integrity of personal and professional preparedness to solve problems of an increased level of complexity;

The multidimensionality of the study of the task of crisis management and the fragmentation of studies studying the professional and personal side of a specialist, the psychological aspect of its implementation in a crisis;

The need to model the crisis management process, taking into account the professional and personal component of specialist development and the fragmentation of ideas about targeted models of personnel development in a crisis.

The search for ways to resolve these contradictions determined the problem of our research, which in theoretical terms is to develop a model of anti-crisis personnel management in a socio-economic crisis based on personal and professional potential, taking into account its structural organization and meaningful content, ensuring the successful implementation of professional activities.

The theoretical basis for modeling anti-crisis personnel management based on professional and personal potential are works in the field of scientific modeling (B.V. Biryukov, V.A. Venikov, Yu.A. Gastev, E.S. Geller, O.Ya. Gelman, A. .I. Uemov, V.V. Chavchanidze, V.A. Shtof, etc.), modeling in psychology (P.K. Anokhin, N.A. Bernshtein, V.P. Zinchenko, I.M. Kondakov, B. G. Meshcheryakov and others).

Modeling as a method of scientific knowledge is based on similarity, in which not the object itself is studied, but its analogue, its substitute, and then the results obtained from studying the model are extrapolated to the object under study. The model can be objectively built and implemented only taking into account the mission, goals and anti-crisis response strategy, because At its core, it is an ideal example of a specialist who can be effective in conditions of professional stress and crisis.

Updating the anti-crisis personnel management model will be complete if a number of external (created by a psychologist) and internal (depending on the specialist) conditions are met:

1. A systematic approach, which consists in the mandatory participation, in times of crisis, of all components of professional and personal potential. In personal: cognitive, emotional and behavioral. In professional: motivational-need, executive and control-evaluative.

2. A facilitation approach associated with adequate psychological tactics for updating personal resources, since this approach focuses on creating conditions for the individual and collective realization of all components of personal potential in a crisis.

3. Responsible attitude towards the anti-crisis response process. The model will be effective only if the professional himself is aware of the degree of responsibility for the actions taken and wants to put effort and effort into his own development and level of professionalism.

Analysis of existing developments in the field of psychological modeling and support made it possible to formulate a number of clear guidelines for the theoretical modeling of crisis management:

1) the personal level comes to the fore, i.e. not a ready-made set of professional skills, but personal and organizational activities, the ability of a specialist to “grow” through solving complex problems, the ability to analyze one’s personal qualities, find conditions for personal growth;

2) the professional level is associated with the ability to quickly create, “design” a way out of the current crisis situation using one’s own professional competencies. The implementation of a professional level is associated with the specialist’s possession of new knowledge and professional skills in accordance with the requirements of the market situation.

A generalization of the research conducted allows us to assert that the process of anti-crisis response requires the following set of personal and professional qualities and progressive structural changes in personality:

1. Change in personality orientation:

Expanding the range of interests and changing the system of needs;

Updating achievement motives;

Increasing need for self-realization and self-development.

2. Increased experience and advanced training:

Increased competence;

Development and expansion of skills and abilities;

Mastering new algorithms for solving professional problems;

Increasing the creativity of activities.

3. Development of complex private abilities.

4. Development of professionally important qualities determined by the specifics of the activity.

5. Development of personal and business qualities.

6. Promotion psychological readiness to professional activity under stress. It is known that human activity as a conscious form of various behavioral activity is determined not only professional qualities subject, but also his personal characteristics.

Rice. 1. Model of anti-crisis personnel management in conditions of socio-economic crisis

Based on the principles of systemic and activity-based approaches in developing the model, it is possible to identify structural elements that make it possible to qualitatively assess both the content and nature of the psychological readiness of personnel from the point of view of personal and professional response. Thus, personal response and readiness to withstand crisis processes includes: cognitive component - contains a body of knowledge about oneself as a professional, about global trends in relation to professional activities, which allow one to withstand and effectively overcome various situations, including stressful ones. The cognitive component determines the effectiveness of professional activities both independently and in a team. During the period of social overcoming, the structure of the cognitive component undergoes changes as it accumulates necessary knowledge, abilities, skills, includes presenting yourself in difficult situations, knowledge about yourself as an individual, your strengths and weak sides, your attitudes, abilities; emotional component - awareness of the signs of emotional comfort, understanding of the signs of emotional tension, internal readiness to experience certain professional situations, the ability to empathize, sympathize, express and understand the emotions of others; behavioral - practicality, independence, confidence, allowing one to make decisions independently, the implementation of individual preferences in choosing behavior strategies in problematic situations of social interaction, the formation of certain skills that allow one to successfully complete professional tasks, the ability to adequately express oneself in unexpected situations, the ability to control and manage one’s reactions . Professional education includes: motivational-need component - the leading determinants of professional activity, the desire to realize oneself in a situation of instability, individual activity, awareness of the need for self-development; executive component - the presence of developed skills and abilities related to professional activities, the ability to apply them in practice; control and evaluation - a conscious attitude towards the results of one’s professional behavior, professional development, the ability to assess and correct individual personal and professional skills, planning and achieving a higher level of professionalism and competence.

The problem of modeling the anti-crisis process, taking into account the professional and personal potential of personnel, is a modern formulation of traditional psychological questions about psychological criteria, about the relationship between personal and professional.

Rice. 2. Model of professional and personal potential of anti-crisis management

In our opinion, personal qualities form an important foundation for a specialist’s professional success. Taking into account professional and personal qualities, the characteristics of their professional activities, we can say that the successful behavior of a specialist will depend on the consistent achievement of professional and personal potential sufficient for anti-stress regulation.

Reviewers:

Bannikova L.N., Doctor of Social Sciences, Professor of the Department of Sociology and social technologies Management, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg;

Vasyagina N.N., Doctor of Psychology, Professor, Head of the Department of Educational Psychology, Ural State Pedagogical University, Yekaterinburg;

Kozlova O.A., Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Center for Research on Socioeconomic Dynamics, Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg.

Bibliographic link

Tokareva Yu.A., Kovalenko T.K. MODEL OF ANTI-CRISIS PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT OF AN ENTERPRISE DURING A SOCIO-ECONOMIC CRISIS // Fundamental Research. – 2015. – No. 8-3. – P. 616-619;
URL: http://fundamental-research.ru/ru/article/view?id=38951 (access date: 01/05/2020). We bring to your attention magazines published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural Sciences" 1

The article is devoted to the homeostatic approach to the analysis and synthesis of systems in the aspect of developing mechanisms for bringing systems out of crisis using the example of economic systems. A conceptual analysis of the concept of “anti-crisis management of the system” was carried out, its intension was constructed and the tasks of creating an anti-crisis management system were determined. The main modern approaches to the analysis of crisis situations in the economy, their advantages and disadvantages. Existing methods for analyzing and modeling the financial and economic state of an enterprise were reviewed, namely factorial methods financial analysis: Altman model, Fulmer model, Springate model, J. Lego model. The article describes the difference between the proposed method and the currently existing ones, which lies in the fact that the concept of system integrity is used, which consists in taking into account the interaction of opposing opposing driving forces and factors. And also the concept of “crisis” is understood as the exit of the system from the state of harmonious dynamically equilibrium action of these opposites. The described method proposes a generalized mechanism for searching, analyzing and balancing such opposing factors. An example of automation of the task is given and examples of cognitive maps for analyzing the actual state of the ideal states of a particular enterprise are given.

control

crisis management

cognitive modeling

homeostatics

conceptual analysis and design

1. S.P. Nikanorov. Conceptualization of subject areas. M.: Concept, 2009, -268 p.

2. A.G. Teslinov. Conceptual thinking in solving complex and confusing problems. – St. Petersburg: Peter, 2009 – 288 p.

3. New philosophical encyclopedia. - 2nd ed., rev. and additional - M.: Mysl, 2010. - T. 1-4. - 2816 s.

4. Systems of factors influencing the process of enterprise development management // D.V. Butenko, L.N. Butenko, E.B. Zhuravleva International magazine applied and basic research. - 2009. - No. 4. - P. 115-116.

5. D. V. Butenko. Conceptual analysis of the anti-crisis management system // Izv. Volga State Technical University. Series "Current problems of management, computer technology and computer science in technical systems". Issue 9: interuniversity collection of scientific articles / VolgSTU. - Volgograd, 2010. - No. 11. - pp. 47-49.

6. D.V. Butenko, Vershkov A.B. Automation of the production modeling process. Conceptual management / Modern high technology. - 2009. - No. 6. - P. 57-58.

7. Application of crisis forecasting models in diagnosing the financial solvency of enterprises [ Electronic resource]. – 2007. – Access mode: http://www.science-bsea.narod.ru/2007/ekonom_2007_2/kaziev_prim.htm

During a crisis, an enterprise or organization is exposed to an increased number of risks; the manager must be able to quickly switch to a new effective mode of operation of his business. Anticipating crisis manifestations, quickly overcoming them and planning the development of an enterprise during a crisis period become urgent tasks. There is a need to model the sustainability of an organization, taking into account changes in significant economic parameters that characterize the operation of the organization. It is assumed that an organization operates sustainably if it maintains its parameters within optimal values ​​when external influences change over time.

Conceptual methods currently being developed by the school of S.P. Nikanorova, provide a powerful apparatus for transferring knowledge between different, sometimes far apart, subject areas, which allows you to create a multidimensional view of the area under study and see other horizons. Analysis using these methods is carried out by identifying the most general concepts related to the formulation of the problem. Extremely general concepts are called categories. Categories are metalinguistic cognitive formations, which include definitions of classes of concepts, and are used in tasks of systematization of knowledge and the cognitive process. Categories record classes of knowledge, stages and factors of cognitive processes, therefore they are included in the knowledge management system. Let's start by defining categories for our topic. Let us conduct a conceptual analysis of the concept of “anti-crisis management of the system” by considering its components.

The concept of “crisis” itself has many different definitions and is used in various fields, for example, financial, political, energy, psychological, environmental, etc. From the whole variety of definitions of crisis, the following components can be distinguished: homeostasis, extinction, balance of power, conflict, imbalance, growth, avalanche. In this way, a general definition can be formed. Crisis (Greek krisis - decision, turning point) - a turning point, revolution or time of transition, when the system loses its homeostatic properties, the balance of forces is lost or the balance in the interaction between the elements of the system is disturbed, leading to a change in the strategy of the system's behavior and the emergence of new types of interaction and acquisition of new properties by the system. The process occurs like an avalanche and gives rise to a constantly expanding set of open problems that impede management.

Anti (Greek anti - against, instead), a prefix meaning: opposite, hostility to something, directed against something.

The concept of “management” also has many definitions, which include the following categories: planning - determining the desired state and the way to achieve it; accounting - recording deviations from planned goals; control and analysis - identification of problem situations; regulation or operational management - making and implementing decisions to eliminate deviations as a solution to a problem situation. The relationship between planning and operational management can be represented on a contraction graph.

Crisis management also needs to be considered as some special management system. Let us give the definition of the system. A system (from ancient Greek σύστημα - “combination”) is a set of interconnected objects and resources, organized by the process of systemogenesis into a single whole and, possibly, opposed to the environment or supersystem. The whole exists within certain boundaries in a state of equilibrium of opposing forces. IN system analysis a system is defined as a set of entities (objects) and connections between them, isolated from the environment for a certain time and for a certain purpose.

To construct the intension of the concept “anti-crisis management” it is necessary to construct the intension of the concept “anti-crisis”. To do this, it is necessary to invert all concepts associated with the concept of “crisis”. In this case, “anti-crisis” also represents a transitional state, the purpose of which is to restore homeostatic properties, dynamic balance of forces and equilibrium in the interaction between elements of the system.

To build an anti-crisis management system, it is necessary to determine the parameters of the system in a state of “crisis”. First, you need to build a control system for current processes, where scales with some poles are defined. These poles on each scale of process parameters will be considered to be those beyond which the system enters a state of instability. Beyond these poles there will be crisis parameters of the system.

The study of this kind of dynamics is homeostatics, the science of dynamically stable systems, where the “principle of harmony” is the basis of equilibrium. Thanks to this beginning, the interaction of the poles turns out to be dynamically constant. Based on the premises of homeostatics, the extreme states of some controlled process can be represented as poles between which dynamic equilibrium is maintained, then the area of ​​harmonious states will be the one formed by the boundaries of the “golden section”, spaced from both poles in accordance with the ratio 1/0.0618.

Figure 1. Zones of harmonious state and crisis states of the system.

The basis of the dynamic stability of the system is the homeostatic principle of equilibrium. The essence of this principle is the following provisions:

The system will be in a state of dynamic stability if it is in balance between two opposing factors and there is a third active factor that dynamically regulates this opposition;

For stable operation, there must be an interaction between the input and output parameters of the system, for which optimal, dangerous and critical zones are identified; the optimal zone is characterized by two boundaries in accordance with the so-called “golden section”.

Based on the principles described above and the conceptual analysis of crisis management concepts, it becomes possible to begin designing such a system. Then its main tasks will be:

Analysis of current parameters of system processes;

Maintaining system parameters in a state of equilibrium;

Prevention of crisis conditions, i.e. tracking trends in changes in system parameters along their scales in order to determine the conditions and time for achieving key states of the limits of permissible values;

Restoring the parameters previously achieved by the system to a state of their mutual stable equilibrium;

The transition of the system to a new qualitative state with other parameters, where their relationships will be stable and dynamically equilibrium.

Based on the list of these tasks, we can conclude that the main difference between the crisis management system is that it contains the following intellectual components. A forecasting subsystem, which should determine the parameters of states with new qualitative properties and a decision support subsystem for a possible transition from the current state to one of the possible dynamically stable states.

The results of the analysis of the concepts included in the concept of “anti-crisis management of the system” allow us to formulate its intension. Anti-crisis management of a system is a homeostatic type system that ensures the return of the original system to a state of dynamic stability of its parameters when interacting with external environment and maintaining it in a state of previously achieved equilibrium (before the crisis), or transferring the system to a new qualitative state. Based on this definition, we can highlight the requirements for the crisis management system:

Monitoring current values ​​of system parameters;

Construction of homeostatic control subsystems based on key system parameters;

Predicting system behavior as a result of aggressive influence environment. This requires a procreative vision of external influence (anticipation of possible negative influences and creating a reserve for unforeseen situations to maintain the main objective function);

Subsystem for identifying problem situations in the process of systemogenesis, constructing their models;

Subsystem of strategic and tactical planning for the behavior of the system in the above-defined states;

Decision support subsystem for overcoming crisis situations.

Let us note that solving the totality of these problems will ensure the creation of a system for managing the stable development of systems of any type.

To build a dynamic stability model economic system Over time, we reviewed existing methods for analyzing and modeling the financial and economic state of an enterprise.

During the research, the following methods of factorial financial analysis were considered: Altman model, Fulmer model, Springate model, J. Legault model.

Altman's model takes into account the following factors: degree of asset liquidity, level of return on assets, level of return on assets, ratio of equity to debt, asset turnover.

Fulmer's model includes factors: the ratio of retained earnings of previous years to total assets, sales to total assets ratio, pre-tax profit to total assets ratio, cash flow to total debt ratio, debt to total assets ratio, current liabilities to total assets ratio, logarithm tangible assets, attitude working capital to total debt and the logarithm of the ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to interest paid.

The Springate model takes into account: the ratio of working capital to the assets of the enterprise, the ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to total assets, the ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to the total amount of short-term liabilities, the ratio of sales revenue to the total amount.

J. Lego's model includes: attitude share capital to the total amount of assets, the ratio of profit before tax and financing costs to the total amount of assets, the ratio of turnover for the two previous periods to the total amount of assets for the same periods.

The reliability of these models ranges from 60 to 90%. The Altman and J. Lego models are applicable only to joint stock companies. The forecast is given for a maximum of two years in advance, and the longer the forecast horizon, the less reliable the results.

All these models are used only to calculate the probability of bankruptcy in the next 1-2 years. In a crisis, it is much more important for a manager to identify and neutralize the causes of deterioration financial condition enterprise than to know what the probability of bankruptcy of his organization in the near future is.

Analysis of the above models shows that they do not solve the problem of determining the dynamic stability of an enterprise. During the analysis, two groups of factors were identified that were opposite. The first group characterizes economic activity enterprises, i.e. it includes everything that relates to production efficiency indicators, the second characterizes the financial condition of the enterprise, it includes the efficiency of use financial resources organizations.

The results of the analysis of known models are necessary to formulate a crisis management model.

The concept of such a dynamic system is presented in Figure 2. The model represents a six-pointed star, consisting of two triangles superimposed on each other - the first is directed upwards, the second downwards.

Figure 2. Conceptual model for assessing the financial and economic sustainability of an enterprise

The economic component consists of the factors “Means of production and objects of labor” and “Labor resources”, “Activity of the enterprise” is their regulator. The regulator is necessary for allocating resources based on various parameters, such as: the degree of mechanization and automation of production; availability of necessary material and financial resources; organizational and technical level of the enterprise; level of concentration and specialization of production; technical and energy equipment of labor; progressiveness technological processes; level marketing activities to study demand for products; product competitiveness; sales markets; organization of trade and advertising.

Based on the results obtained, the optimal values ​​of the factors can be determined:

“Means of production and objects of labor”, which can be characterized using the following indicators: capital profitability, capital productivity, capital intensity, average annual cost of fixed assets, depreciation, output per machine hour, utilization rate of available equipment, material intensity, material productivity, cost of used objects of labor ;

“Labor resources”, which includes the following coefficients: the enterprise’s supply of labor resources; complete use of the working time fund; fund wages; indicators of labor productivity, profit per employee and per ruble of wages, etc.

The financial component consists of the factors “Profit” and “Costs”, “Financial condition of the enterprise” is their regulator. The regulator is necessary to obtain maximum profits with the optimal amount of costs. This occurs by regulating the values ​​of various parameters, such as: the presence and structure of the enterprise’s capital according to the composition of its sources and forms of placement; efficiency and intensity of use of own and borrowed money; solvency; financial stability.

The optimal values ​​of the factors are determined:

“Profit”, which can be characterized using all indicators of profit and profitability;

“Costs”, which includes the following coefficients: volume of gross, commodity and products sold in value, natural and conditionally natural terms; product structure, its quality; rhythm of production; volume of shipment and sales of products; leftovers finished products in stock; the total cost of selling products, including by element, cost item, type of product; costs per ruble of marketable products; cost of an individual product, etc.

Note that the polar groups of parameters that characterize the stability of the system are separated in such a way that polar interaction is also observed within these groups. This leads to the fact that the presented model does not deny, but absorbs its analogues. It is important that a systematic approach is preserved, since all these parameters are calculated on the basis of well-known hierarchical economic models. This idea forms the basis of the project automated system, which produces a complete analysis of the balance of the organization’s parameters and issues recommendations for achieving dynamic sustainability at any time.

Based on the results of factor calculations, a model was built that reflects the current financial stability of a particular “enterprise X”. Due to the lack of opportunity to fully present the calculations using the model we developed, we omit this part and present only the results.

Figure 3 - Cognitive models. Ideal and real model of enterprise sustainability X.

Based on the results of such modeling, real examples“enterprise X”, cognitive maps are drawn up, an example of which is shown in Figure 3. The results indicate that the management of the enterprise is investing in new materials or new equipment. This forces him to reduce the number or train workers, so productivity falls. This process requires special control, otherwise it can lead to serious consequences.

A conceptual analysis of the concept of “anti-crisis management” allows us to identify the basic concepts of anti-crisis management and formulate requirements for the design of such a system;

Isolation from known models factor analysis polar groups of factors characterizing the operation of the economic system; building their interactions within these groups; development of a model of dynamic stability of the economic system using the principles of homeostatics.

Cognitive modeling of the crisis management system allows you to create cognitive maps of the current state of the system and carry out synthetic work to develop recommendations for the organization to reach a state of stability.

The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant 14-07-00196 Modeling of harmonious integral systems

Reviewers:

Goncharova M.V., Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Economics and Finance of Enterprises, Volgograd Technical University, Volgograd.

Ulyanova O.Yu., Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department " Economic theory and economic policy" Volgograd State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Volgograd.

Bibliographic link

Butenko D.V., Butenko L.N., Bugriy R.S., Koshechkin Ya.S. MODELING OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS BASED ON THE HOMEOSTATIC APPROACH // Contemporary issues science and education. – 2014. – No. 3.;
URL: http://science-education.ru/ru/article/view?id=13768 (access date: 01/05/2020). We bring to your attention magazines published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural Sciences"

Introduction

CHAPTER 1. Theoretical and methodological foundations for modeling the process of crisis management of industrial enterprises 11

1.1. The essence and conceptual basis of modeling the crisis management process 11

1.2. The essence, types and causes of crises in industrial enterprises 21

1.2.1. Analysis of the concept of crisis, classification of types of crises 21

1.2,2. Stages of the crisis process 26

1.2.3. Classification of causes of crises 29

1.3. Theoretical aspects of insolvency and bankruptcy 35

1.3.1. Analysis of the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy 35

1.3.2, Analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy: directions for improvement 40

Conclusions on the first chapter 53

CHAPTER 2. Development of methods ii mathematical models of fuzzy-set analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises 57

2.1. Expert systems as a generalized representation of knowledge about the object of study 57

2.2. Basic principles of the theory of fuzzy sets: fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers and operations on them 60

2.3, Concept of linguistic variable 63

2.4. Development of a method for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise 65

2.4.1. General provisions 65

2.4.2, System of model adequacy criteria 68

2.4.3. Representation of bankruptcy probability assessment as a linguistic variable 69

2.4.4. Application of experimental design theory 72

2.4.5. Algorithm for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise 76

2.5. Development of a mathematical model of the crisis management process: a steep ascent along the response surface 89

2.6. Methodology for matrix assessment of qualitative and qualitative-quantitative factors 94

Conclusions on the second chapter 99

CHAPTER 3. Implementation of developed methods and models of anti-crisis management of an industrial enterprise 103

3.1. Economic analysis of the research object: parameters, trends 103

3.2. Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy for the object of study 108

3.2.1. Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy 108

3.2.2. Calculation of the bankruptcy probability estimate using the developed model 126

3.2.3. Formation of an anti-crisis strategy 132

3.3. Assessing the effectiveness of the anti-crisis measures taken... 136

Conclusions on the third chapter 138

Conclusion 141

Bibliography

Introduction to the work

Relevance of the research topic. Modern operating conditions for Russian enterprises necessitate a comprehensive and objective economic analysis of production and economic activities. Such an analysis makes it possible to identify inefficiencies and the reasons for their occurrence, and also, based on the results obtained, to develop specific recommendations for optimizing activities. In this regard, at this stage of the formation of market relations in the Russian economy, research in the field of crisis management, in particular, in the field of identifying unfavorable trends in the development of enterprises, is becoming increasingly important.

The particular importance of such studies is confirmed by the steady increase in the number of enterprises transferred to the stage of bankruptcy proceedings, the increase in overdue accounts payable, and the decrease in the profitability of enterprises in the industrial sector. Thus, according to the data of the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, the number of cases at this stage considered by the Court in 2005 was 13963, and in 2004 - 9390. At the same time, there is a decrease in the number of conclusions of settlement agreements (both at the observation stage and and at the stages of external management and bankruptcy proceedings): in 2005 - 84; in 2004 - 150. At the same time, the number of enterprises that were able to actually restore their solvency in 2005 was 21 out of 1013, compared to 2004 - 14 out of 1369 (at the stage of external management).

Moreover, the volumes and growth rates of accounts payable are very significant. Thus, at the end of 2000, according to the State Statistics Committee of Russia, overdue accounts payable amounted to 1,571 billion rubles. (or 116% by 1999), at the beginning of 2002 1638 billion rubles (or 104.3% by 2000). It should also be noted that the rate of profit of enterprises in the industrial sector decreased during 2001 from 14% to 9% (based on materials from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMAC).

Many domestic and foreign authors are studying the problems of economic and mathematical analysis of the processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises. Among them are Altman E., Anokhin S.A., Bagiev G.L., Balabanov A.V., Bakanov M.I., Glukhov V.V., Gradov A.P., Kobzev V.V., Kozlovsky V. .A., Kozlovskaya E.A., Kuzin B.I., Lis J., Mednikov M.D., Nedosekin A.O, Okorokov V.R., Robinson J., Sokolova R.V., Stoyanova E. S., Tisshaw J., Toffler E., Utkin E.A., Tsarev V.V., Chesser A., ​​Eitington V.N., Yuryev V.N. etc. It is believed that the criterion for the effectiveness of crisis management is the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy. Therefore, the development of the theory, methodology and tools of this area of ​​crisis management in modern economic conditions will ensure the effective functioning of the enterprise as a whole.

However, the uncertainty of the external and internal environment of industrial enterprises, which reduces the reliability of the known “exact” mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy, the heterogeneity and non-representativeness of samples in these models, and the presence of statistical errors necessitate the use of methods and models of fuzzy set analysis as tools to reduce loss of expert information during its interpretation and processing, as well as to determine the boundaries of uncertainty.

Moreover, at present there is virtually no comprehensive system for managing crisis enterprises, based on the use of modern mathematical apparatus, which allows for the rapid analysis of economic information in order to make informed management decisions.

It should be noted that methods and models of fuzzy set analysis, judging by the available scientific publications, began to be used in economic research relatively recently. They concerned mainly aspects of the stock market. However, it seems that it is possible

The properties of fuzzy set analysis can be extended to solving problems of crisis management of industrial enterprises.

The urgent need for the development of methods and models of fuzzy set analysis in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises also arose due to the fact that attempts to make and implement management decisions based on classical mathematical methods were unsuccessful. This can be explained based on the fairly well-known principle of incompatibility, according to which, as the size and complexity of production systems increase, their modeling using known mathematical relationships becomes more difficult.

Thus, the relevance of the chosen topic of the dissertation, the complexity, multidimensionality and unresolved nature of a number of methodological issues in the practical application of fuzzy set analysis in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises determined the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research.

The purpose of the study is the development of methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis of anti-crisis management processes aimed at increasing the efficiency of production and economic activities of industrial enterprises.

In accordance with the goal, the following were decided tasks:

an analysis of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises was carried out and their classification was made;

an analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises was carried out;

a conceptual model of the economic mechanism of insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed;

a method and mathematical model for fuzzy-set estimation of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises have been developed;

a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed;

a method has been developed for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises;

a technique for fuzzy-multiple assessment of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed.

Object of study industrial enterprises were selected.

Subject of study - processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises.

Theoretical and methodological basis Research consists of scientific works of domestic and foreign authors in the field of economic analysis, anti-crisis enterprise management, economic and mathematical modeling, theory of fuzzy sets, theory of experimental planning, theory of formalization of expert information, system analysis.

Information basis The research was based on materials from the State Statistics Committee of Russia, publications and reports of the Bulletin of the Supreme Arbitration Court, analytical and reporting materials from the executive authorities of the Russian Federation.

Scientific novelty research is as follows:

the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy have been clarified, differing by taking into account the depth of the crisis state and processes;

a classification of the causes of insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs from the known classifications by taking into account aggregate factors of reducing the net discounted flow;

a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the occurrence of insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs by taking into account the vagueness of the stages of operation of enterprises;

a method and mathematical model have been developed for fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises, which differ by taking into account the effects of interaction of factors of production and economic activity in the regression equation developed both for individual enterprises and for their totality;

a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, characterized by taking into account the key factors of production and economic activity and the direction of their optimization;

a method has been developed for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises, characterized by the use of the “steep ascent along the response surface” method and linguistic recognition of results;

a technique for fuzzy-multiple assessment of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed, which differs by taking into account the vagueness of expert information at all stages of its processing.

Practical significance dissertation research lies in the possibility of using the developed economic and mathematical methods and models in the analysis and monitoring of the activities of industrial enterprises, anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises, financial and industrial groups and holdings, and enterprises in other industries.

Approbation and reliability of the research results.

The results of the dissertation research, scientific conclusions and methodological developments were presented at scientific seminars of St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University and are used in the educational process of St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University. The main provisions and results of the dissertation research were included in the comprehensive anti-crisis plan of General Production Company LLC for 2004-2005; a number of provisions of the dissertation were used in solving the problems of anti-crisis management of VIPuf LLC, as evidenced by the attached “Act on

9 implementation" and "Certificate on the use of the results of dissertation research."

Structure and scope of the dissertation. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, appendices and a bibliography of 138 titles. Contains 148 pages of main text, 20 figures, 42 tables.

In the introduction the relevance of the topic is substantiated, the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research are determined.

In the first chapter“Theoretical and methodological foundations for modeling the crisis management process”, explores the conceptual and methodological aspects of modeling the crisis management process. The essence of the concepts of crisis management, insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy is revealed; concepts of economic crisis. The goals and objectives of anti-crisis enterprise management are formulated. The concepts of crisis classifications are generalized, and a classification of the causes of crises is proposed. The most relevant research in the field of assessing the likelihood of bankruptcy has been analyzed and systematized.

Chapter two“Development of methods and mathematical models of fuzzy set analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises” is devoted to theoretical issues in the development of methods and models of fuzzy set analysis. The choice of the theory of fuzzy sets, the theory of experiment planning, as well as the method of forming Delphi expert surveys in conditions of vagueness of expert information is substantiated. Basic algorithms and models are being developed.

In the third chapter“Implementation of developed methods and models of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises” implements models and methods for assessing the likelihood of bankruptcy using the example of a selected enterprise - the object of research. The process of anti-crisis management is studied.

10 niya, in the form of optimization of a function represented by a regression polynomial equation. An anti-crisis management strategy is proposed, created on the basis of the method of forming anti-crisis strategies. Practical recommendations for its implementation in practice are offered.

In custody the most significant scientific and practical results of the dissertation research are summarized, and the main conclusions and recommendations are formulated.

The essence, types and causes of crises in industrial enterprises

The concept of crisis has many definitions and interpretations. Translated from Greek, the word “crisis” means “a verdict, a decision on any issue or in a dubious situation,” and can also mean “a way out, a solution to a conflict (for example, a military one).” The modern meaning of the word is often used by doctors: crisis means the decisive phase in the development of the disease. Here we are talking about “crisis” when the disease becomes more severe, turns into another disease, or even ends in death. In this regard, we can recall Koselleck’s laconic formulation: “a crisis is a barely measurable turning point at which the solution is either death or life.”

In the XVII - XVIII centuries. The concept of crisis began to be applied in relation to processes occurring in society, such as military or political crises. In this case, the almost unchanged meaning of crisis, taken from medicine, was used.

And finally, in the 19th century, the meaning shifted to economics. The "classical" economic concept of crisis, which emerged at that time, means an undesirable and dramatic phase in the capitalist economic system, characterized by fluctuations and negative phenomena or disturbances. In this sense, the concept of crisis has long occupied a strong place in the scheme of theories of conjunctures. Thus, Spiethoff’s cyclical scheme contains the following stages: recession - first rise - second rise - peak - lack of capital - crisis. In turn, the identification of stages of economic development and the development of the theory of economic cycles made it possible to replace the “classical” definition of crisis with the more ambiguous concept of “economic crisis.” According to Mechlap’s definition, we are talking about an economic crisis when “an undesirable state of economic relations arises, an unbearably critical situation for large sections of the population and producing sectors of the economy.” At the same time, Sombart defines an economic crisis as “an economically negative phenomenon in which there is a massive danger to economic life and reality.”

In enterprise economics, the concept of enterprise crisis is used. In a broad sense, this means a process that threatens the existence of a business. The concept of enterprise crisis describes in modern economic literature various phenomena in the life of an enterprise, from simple interference in the functioning through various conflicts, up to the destruction of the enterprise, which, according to Grenz, “at least for a given enterprise can be characterized as catastrophic.” Further, the crisis of an enterprise can be understood as an unplanned and unwanted, time-limited process that can significantly interfere with or even make it impossible for the functioning of an economic entity. At the same time, the fundamental (conceptual) goals of the enterprise that are under threat and the size of this threat, in turn, determine the strength of the crisis.

An enterprise crisis represents a turning point in the sequence of events and actions. Typically for a crisis situation there are two options for getting out of it - either liquidation of the enterprise (bankruptcy) as an extreme form, or successful overcoming of the crisis.

The periods between the beginning and end of a crisis vary in length. On the one hand, there are long-term, weakly accelerating crisis processes, on the other, there are unexpectedly emerging crisis processes, of high intensity and with a short development period. A crisis can appear completely unexpectedly during the harmonious development of an enterprise and have the character of an insurmountable catastrophe or arise in accordance with assumptions and calculations. But in rare cases, the emergence of a crisis is unexpected, that is, without any warning to specialists (experts) of the enterprise.

In a crisis, the most important problem is management. The high complexity of management in this case allows, on the one hand, to influence the development of autonomous processes and, on the other hand, covers the specific problems of management, which consists in the need for its high quality and, in turn, the presence of only two options for the final result - bankruptcy , or successfully overcome the crisis.

The most complete presentation of the signs of a crisis can be found in Wiener and Caan:

First, crises are turning points in an evolving sequence of events and actions; they often form a situation in which urgency and urgency of action are of great importance; crises threaten the goals and values ​​of the enterprise.

Secondly, crises reduce control over events, reduce reaction time to a minimum, cause a lack of available time, change relationships between participants, cause stress and fear among participants (management); Moreover, the information available to participants is usually insufficient.

Thirdly, the consequences of crises are severe for the future of the participants involved in them, but at the same time they consist of events that create new conditions for achieving success; crises introduce uncertainty into assessing the situation and developing the necessary alternatives to overcome them.

Theoretical aspects of insolvency and bankruptcy

In order to achieve the goal set in the dissertation, it is necessary to consider the concept of bankruptcy in more detail. It should be noted that there is no clear understanding of the etymology of the word “bankruptcy” in science. According to the compilers of a four-volume dictionary of the Russian language, the word “bankruptcy” comes from the French “banqueroute”. The famous Russian language researcher P. Chernykh shares the same opinion. But most researchers consider the etymological basis of the word “bankruptcy” to be two Italian words “banco” and “rotto”, meaning “bench” and “broken”. According to E. Freiheit, the concept of bankruptcy dates back to the 16th century and comes from the Italian “banca rotta”, which translated into Russian means “broken table”. According to historical data, merchant creditors broke the tables of insolvent money changers who were engaged in transactions in the markets of the city-republics of medieval Italy (Venice, Genoa).

According to another point of view (M. Sobolev), the word “bankruptcy” comes from the word “bank”. For various reasons, commercial banks very often became insolvent in the Middle Ages. In Russian, the word “bankruptcy” has been known (first with “u” after “r”) since the Petrine era.

In our opinion, in domestic economic science there is a sufficient number of studies devoted to the analysis of problems of insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprises. Among them we can highlight the works of V.V. Glukhova, A.P. Gradova, B.I. Kuzina, M.D. Mednikova and some others. However, methods for overcoming the crisis and preventing bankruptcy of enterprises in the context of the specifics of the Russian economy and uncertainty are still not sufficiently developed.

There are also disagreements in the scientific and conceptual apparatus. Thus, both lawyers and economists often do not distinguish between such concepts as insolvency, insolvency, and bankruptcy. In most scientific works and practical articles, these concepts are used as synonyms.

Thus, in order to identify the essence of the processes considered in the dissertation, it is necessary to distinguish in more detail these similar, but at the same time different, from an economic point of view, categories.

So, for example, V.V. Kovalev understands the insolvency (bankruptcy) of an enterprise as the inability to satisfy creditors’ demands for payment for goods, works, services, including the inability to ensure mandatory payments to the budget, to extra-budgetary funds, due to the unsatisfactory structure of the debtor’s balance sheet. According to S.G. Belyaev, V.I. Koshkin, bankruptcy is a civilized procedure for liquidating a debtor, selling his property and settling accounts with creditors. The domestic legislator also does not differentiate the concepts of bankruptcy and insolvency. In Art. 2 of the Federal Law of the Russian Federation “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)”, bankruptcy is an inability recognized by an arbitration court or declared by a debtor to fully satisfy the claims of creditors for monetary obligations and (or) to fulfill the obligation to make mandatory payments.

In foreign legislation, insolvency is understood as the inability of a person to pay off debt obligations, satisfied by the court, that is, his absolute insolvency. The concept of bankruptcy is used both as a synonym for the concept of insolvency, and in a narrow sense, describing a special case of insolvency when an insolvent debtor commits criminal acts that cause damage to creditors. Insolvency is considered as a preliminary assessment of the debtor, and bankruptcy is either a final, court-ordered inability to pay obligations, or as an insolvency associated with unlawful acts.

In our opinion, insolvency, which we understand as the inability of an enterprise to pay its obligations on time, does not appear immediately, but only at the last three stages of business operation. Accordingly, three types of enterprise insolvency can be distinguished: - temporary insolvency; - acute insolvency; - chronic insolvency.

In foreign countries, bankruptcy procedures are used only in cases of chronic insolvency. The basis of the current Russian insolvency legislation is not the criterion of chronic insolvency, but the concept of insolvency in general.

Unfortunately, many domestic economic studies devoted to insolvency still do not have a definition that reveals the content of this economic category. Researchers, at best, limit themselves to citing the definition given in the Russian insolvency law and revealing its legal side, and in the worst case, they do not disclose this concept at all. But it is necessary to take into account that the legal category of insolvency is completely derived from the economic category of insolvency.

According to widespread tradition, insolvency refers to the poor financial condition of an enterprise, characterized by its insolvency. Often in domestic studies when studying this phenomenon, it is overlooked that insolvency is only an external form of its internal problems, or rather the result of unprofitability of activities, as well as the impact of crisis processes.

Basic principles of the theory of fuzzy sets: fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers and operations on them

Universe X is a universal set to which all results of the study of an object belong.

A fuzzy set A is a set of values ​​of the universe X, such that each value of the universe X is associated with the degree of membership of this value in the set A,

In other words, in accordance with the basic principles of the theory of fuzzy sets, if each element x is associated with the degree of its membership in the fuzzy set I, then this membership is expressed by the number juA(x) on the interval. This extended concept of membership function allows you to flexibly formalize and explore many quantitative and qualitative objects, concepts, events, representing them using a fuzzy formalized set (fuzzy set): VxeX A = ((x,(iA(x))l (2.1) where (X,/JA(X)) is a pair of components (singleton) composed of an element x and its membership function fiA(x) - the degree of membership of x to the set A.

The domain of definition of cA(x) will be the universe X (xe X) of the fuzzy set A: cA:X Ш,ЛсХ. (2.2)

A change in the functional characteristics of an object’s state can be expressed as a vector X. Taking into account the vagueness of the values ​​of the vector x,-, where / = [і,її], any situation can be interpreted by a fuzzy singleton.

A class of states characterized by a common property is considered as a union of fuzzy sets. For example, to combine fuzzy sets A and B with membership functions juA(x) and j.iH(x), the fuzzy set A and B has a membership function: ALL) = niax(/ (x\/ів(x)), where x є X. (2.3)

In general, the envelope describing this union is a nonlinear membership function.

In accordance with , the concept of a unimodal fuzzy number of LR type is presented in the following form: A = (aAc), (2.4) where b is the average value (mode) of the fuzzy number; a and c are, respectively, the left and right boundaries of possible variations of a fuzzy number (see Fig. 2.1). For such a fuzzy number, the membership function of the variable x to the fuzzy set A has the form: J7,(1 - (b - x)la)x b,a 0 (2.5) Ml = (R(\ (x-b)/c)x b,c 0, where L and R are (L eft - left and R ight - right) functions of the increasing and decreasing parts of the membership function of a fuzzy number, respectively.

Operations on fuzzy numbers are introduced through operations on membership functions based on the so-called segment principle.

Let the membership level a be defined as the ordinate of the membership function of a fuzzy number. Then the intersection of the membership function with the fuzzy number gives a pair of values, which are called the boundaries of the confidence interval.

Let the membership level a be fixed and the corresponding confidence intervals for two fuzzy numbers A and B have been determined: [ ,] and fo, ], respectively. Then the basic operations with fuzzy numbers are reduced to operations with their confidence intervals. And operations with intervals, in turn, are expressed through operations with real numbers - the boundaries of intervals: 1) the operation of “addition”: 2) the operation of “subtraction”: - = 3) the operation of “multiplication”: [a1,a2]x[th ],й2]=[a, x.bVta2 xb2] 4) “division” operation; 5) operation of “raising to a power”:

Analyzing the properties of nonlinear operations with fuzzy numbers (for example, division), researchers come to the conclusion that the shape of the membership functions of the resulting fuzzy numbers is often close to triangular. This allows you to approximate the result, bringing it to a triangular (unimodal) form. And, if reducibility is evident, then operations with triangular (unimodal) numbers are reduced to operations with the abscissa of the vertices of their membership functions.

That is, if a description of a unimodal number is introduced by a set of abscissas of vertices A = (a,b,c), then we can write: (ax,bx,cx) + (a2,b2ic2) = (ax+a2,bx+b2,cx+ c2)

Therefore, in this dissertation research it will be unimodal fuzzy numbers of the LR type that will be used.

The concept of a linguistic variable allows us to adequately represent an approximate verbal description and draw an appropriate conclusion even in cases where a deterministic description is absent or impossible in principle. The use of linguistic variables is quite common in human activities involving approximate reasoning. When simulating such activities, it is necessary to build mathematical models that allow, on the one hand, to represent these variables and, on the other hand, to process them accordingly.

Fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic form the basis of the linguistic approach, in which the variables involved in the analytical description of the model can take on linguistic values.

A linguistic variable is characterized by a set of components: P = ,7,), (2-6) where x is the name of the linguistic variable; T - term set or set of values; D - domain of definition (universum).

Linguistic variables can accordingly be divided into qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative.

So, for example, the linguistic variable “level of management” can be represented by a certain set of components according to (2.6). Obviously, this variable is of a qualitative nature, but representing it in a fuzzy form does not cause difficulties (Fig. 2.2).

Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy

An adequate model of the crisis management process obtained as a result of 2.4 has the form of a first-degree polynomial. The economic meaning of the resulting model is that it represents an adequate mathematical model of the crisis management process. The polynomial coefficients are partial derivatives of the response function with respect to the corresponding variables. Their geometric meaning is the tangents of the angles of inclination of the hyperplane to the corresponding axis. A coefficient that is larger in absolute value corresponds to a larger slope angle and, therefore, a more significant change in the optimization parameter when this factor changes.

The primary task is the interpretation of the model, which is solved in several stages:

1) If there are significant linear interaction effects in the model, these effects are replaced by new factors (for example, if there is interaction in the model (x1x2) and the number of factors is 5, the factor x5 = (xxx2) is added to the model). Thus, a full factorial experiment becomes a fractional factorial experiment with an appropriate number of replicates (interaction effects).

2) It is established to what extent each factor influences the optimization parameter. The magnitude of the regression coefficient is a quantitative measure of this influence. The higher the coefficient, the stronger the influence of the factor. The nature of the influence of factors is indicated by the signs of the coefficients. The plus sign indicates that with an increase in the value of the factor, the value of the optimization parameter increases, and with a minus sign, it decreases. The interpretation of signs during optimization depends on whether the maximum or minimum of the response function is sought.

Further analysis of the model assumes movement along a gradient.

A gradient is a vector showing the direction of the fastest change of a certain quantity, the value of which varies from one point in space to another. The gradient gradfp of a continuous single-valued function is a vector: d r d(p -. dt g (2.33) gradp = -f-i+- -j + ... + -f-k, From] dx2 dxk where is the partial derivative of the function with respect to the i-th factor ; i,j,...,k are unit vectors and directions of the factor axes.

According to Taylor's theorem on the series expansion of an analytical function, the partial derivatives of a function with respect to factors are equal in magnitude and sign to the corresponding regression coefficients. Consequently, the gradient gradY of the response function (function of the probability of enterprise bankruptcy) Y is a vector; gradY -b(i + b2j + .,.+ bkk, (2.34)

Moving along the gradient provides the shortest path to the optimum, since the direction of the gradient is the direction of the steepest slope leading from a given point to the top. The economic meaning of gradY is that gradY is a mathematical model of the optimal strategy for the process of anti-crisis management of an enterprise.

If you change the factors in proportion to their coefficients, taking into account the sign, then the movement towards the optimum will be carried out along the steepest path. This process of movement towards the optimum region is called steep ascent. Those. the economic meaning of this movement towards the optimum is a set of management decisions to exit the enterprise from the crisis phase of activity.

The technique for calculating steep ascent should be considered using the example of a problem with one factor xx. Let us assume that curve 1 represents an unknown response function. As a result of implementing the experimental plan with the center at point O, a regression equation y = bQ + blxl was obtained, which adequately describes the response function in the range of factor x) values ​​from -1 to +1. The value of the regression coefficient bx is equal to the tangent of the angle between the regression line and the axis of this factor. If the step of movement along the xx axis is taken equal to /C, then, multiplying it by 6, we obtain the coordinates (Axx and /) of point A lying on the gradient. After the second step, the distance along the x-axis will be equal to 2/C. By multiplying 2Art by bx, we find the coordinates of 2Ax( and 2 points B lying on the gradient, etc. Then experiments are carried out with conditions corresponding to the points on the gradient. Based on the results of these experiments, the optimum region is determined. In practical problems, to reduce the volume of the experiment, not all, but only part of the experiments provided for by a steep ascent. The conditions of the experiment are chosen so that the optimum region can be enclosed in a “fork.” After this, the experiments are carried out at the points of the interval formed by the points of the “fork” until the best result is found.

Arbitration manager is a highly paid and in-demand type of professional activity

The question of employment, of choosing the type of professional activity arises for any person who is looking for a new job, or trying to find a job, or preparing to quit, including those from law enforcement agencies.

How to adapt and find a job in conditions of unemployment in a new place? How to get a highly paid, and, not least important, profession that is prestigious and in demand on the labor market?

In Russia, these questions are constantly asked by practicing specialists, managers and employees of commercial organizations, banks, employees of government agencies, employees of law enforcement agencies and security forces, striving to improve the quality of their lives, to achieve career growth, and to improve their level of well-being.

Trying to understand these difficult issues, we decided to tell our readers about such a highly paid, in-demand, but obscure profession for many Russians as arbitration manager.

And today we are having a conversation with the Deputy Director of the private educational institution of additional professional education (PSE DPO) “Personal Security Academy”, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Honorary Worker of Higher Education of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation Perfilyev Alexander Borisovich with extensive experience in training arbitration managers.

Alexander Borisovich, at the beginning of our conversation, let’s clarify the essence of the very concept of “arbitration manager” and determine its possible legal status.

The arbitration manager, when exercising his powers, primarily relies on the norms and provisions of the Federal Law “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)” dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ, in Art. 2 of which it is stated that “an arbitration manager is a citizen of the Russian Federation who is a member of a self-regulatory organization of arbitration managers.” At the same time, one must imagine that depending on the types of bankruptcy procedures carried out, the status of an arbitration manager may be different.

When carrying out such a bankruptcy procedure as “ observation» the arbitration manager acquires the status of “temporary manager”, during the procedure “ financial recovery"he acquires the status of "administrative manager", and if a procedure is introduced in relation to the insolvent debtor external control“, then in this case the arbitration manager acquires the status of “external manager”.

When the case against an insolvent debtor reaches bankruptcy, that is, a procedure is introduced "bankruptcy proceedings" and the mechanism for selling his property is launched, the arbitration manager acquires the status of “bankruptcy trustee”.

Well, if a bankruptcy procedure has been initiated against an insolvent citizen, then the arbitration manager acquires the status of “ financial manager».

It is appropriate to note here that the introduction of one or another bankruptcy procedure in relation to an insolvent debtor and the appointment of one or another candidate as an arbitration manager is carried out by the Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, and accordingly, we can say that the arbitration manager this is the legal representative of the Arbitration Court carrying out bankruptcy proceedings.

Please tell me, Alexander Borisovich, how in demand are arbitration managers in the labor market in modern Russia?

Judge for yourself. Over the past two decades in our country, annually the Arbitration Courts of the Russian Federation recognize from 30 thousand to 80 thousand organizations of various forms of ownership as financially insolvent (bankrupt), as evidenced by the statistical data of the Arbitration Court itself, published on its official website.

In addition, it is necessary to keep in mind the fact that starting from October 15, 2015, changes to the bankruptcy legislation concerning bankruptcy of citizens (individuals) came into force, and according to preliminary estimates of specialists, in the coming years they will be recognized as financially insolvent, or even bankrupt from 800 thousand. before 1.2 million Russians in respect of whom the appropriate bankruptcy procedures will be carried out - the “debt restructuring” procedure or the “property sale” procedure.

At the same time, one cannot fail to note the aspect that mass processes associated with the bankruptcy of individuals have already begun, and the fact that citizens and individual entrepreneurs who have lost the opportunity to fully pay off loans, have lost the ability to timely repay debts to business partners, debts for mortgages and housing and communal services, they themselves seek to initiate the appropriate bankruptcy procedure against themselves.

This circumstance, strange at first glance, is due to the fact that if the arbitration financial manager competently, observing all the requirements of the law, carries out such a bankruptcy procedure against a citizen as “sale of property”, then all the citizen’s debts, even if they reach millions , will be “written off” from him by the decision of the Arbitration Court and he will not owe anything to anyone.

Of course, in all these cases, bankruptcy procedures for legal entities and individuals are and will be carried out, which last from six months to 2 years, only by representatives of the Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation - arbitration (temporary, administrative, external, bankruptcy and financial) managers.

At the same time, it must be borne in mind that there are about 12 thousand people currently practicing insolvency practitioners in Russia. Based on the number of insolvency (bankruptcy) cases initiated and the number of active arbitration managers, it is not difficult to come to the conclusion that the modern labor market is in need of tens of thousands of trained arbitration managers and this need is only growing.

Alexander Borisovich, this begs the most important question for our readers: “What is the salary of an arbitration manager?”

First of all, I want to clarify that the arbitration manager does not receive a salary, but a monetary remuneration, the amount of which is established not by the director of a financially insolvent organization, not by creditors, not by a bankrupt citizen, but directly by the Arbitration Court.

Moreover, the monetary remuneration of the arbitration manager is of two components- from fixed amounts, which is paid monthly, throughout the entire bankruptcy procedure, and from the amount paid to the anti-crisis manager upon completion of a particular bankruptcy procedure.

When setting the amount of monetary compensation, the Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation is, of course, guided by the norms set out in Art. 20.6 of the Federal Law “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)” dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ, which reflects the minimum amounts of the fixed amount of remuneration of the arbitration manager established during the relevant bankruptcy procedure.

In particular, the minimum fixed amount of remuneration is for:

temporary manager - 30 thousand rubles per month;

administrative manager - 15 thousand rubles per month;

external manager - 45 thousand rubles per month;

bankruptcy manager - 30 thousand rubles per month;

financial manager - 25 thousand rubles at a time.

Second part of the reward, paid to the arbitration manager upon completion of a particular bankruptcy procedure, is calculated in percentages from the value of the property of the insolvent organization or from the amount of repaid debts.

I draw your attention to the fact that the second part of the remuneration, which is completely legally received by the arbitration manager who has completed the bankruptcy procedure, very significant and can reach tens of thousands, or even several hundred thousand rubles. A curious and interested reader can determine for himself the amounts of the second part of the arbitration manager’s remuneration by looking, using the Internet, in paragraphs. 9-13 art. 20.6 of the Federal Law “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)” dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ.

When determining the income that a practicing arbitration manager may have, it cannot be said that an experienced anti-crisis manager can simultaneously conduct several bankruptcy procedures for various legal entities and several bankruptcy procedures for individuals.

It is quite clear that the total monetary remuneration of such an experienced arbitration manager can be very significant, even by metropolitan standards.

The logic of our conversation also leads to the following questions: “Who can obtain the status of an arbitration manager and what professional requirements are imposed on him?”

The basic professional requirements for arbitration managers are defined in Art. 20 of the Federal Law “On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)” dated October 26, 2002 No. 127-FZ, which states that a person who can become an arbitration manager must:

1. Be a citizen of the Russian Federation.
2. Have a higher (no matter what, but higher) education.
3. Pass the theoretical exam on the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers”.
4. Be a member of one of the self-regulatory organizations of insolvency practitioners.
5. Have at least one year of experience in management positions.
6. Complete an internship as an assistant to an arbitration manager in a bankruptcy case for at least two years.
7. Not be punished in the form of disqualification for committing an administrative offense or in the form of deprivation of the right to occupy certain positions or engage in certain activities for committing a crime.
8. Have no criminal record for committing an intentional crime.
9. Alexander Borisovich, here the following question has arisen: “Where can I get training and pass the theoretical exam in the training program for arbitration managers”?

First of all, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that in accordance with the requirements of the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of May 28, 2003 N 308, the state theoretical exam for the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers” is conducted by the Federal Service for Registration, Cadastre and Cartography of the Russian Federation (Rosreestr) together with teachers and on the basis of the educational institution in which the student studied. True, upon submission of a corresponding application to Rosreestr, a state theoretical exam can be scheduled for applicants to take the exam directly in the region in which they live.

But, in order for a candidate to be allowed to take such a theoretical exam, he must first undergo professional retraining and successfully master the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers”, approved by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development dated December 10, 2009 No. 517.

Moreover, it should be noted that Rosreestr accepts the state exam only from students of those educational institutions that have concluded with it “Agreements on cooperation in the field of training (retraining) of arbitration managers.”

Judging by the information posted on the website of the Federal Service for Registration, Cadastre and Cartography of the Russian Federation, the number of educational institutions in Russia that have entered into a “Cooperation Agreement...” is no more than one hundred.

The Private Security Educational Institution “Academy of Personal Security”, where I work, also has such an “Agreement on cooperation in the field of training and retraining of arbitration managers.”

A distinctive feature of teaching the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers” at the Private Security Academy is that the entire educational process takes place remotely, using the Internet, e-mail, webinars and recorded video lectures.

As my practice shows , a modern educated person in the twentiethIcentury, in the age of information technology, simply does not want, or even does not have the opportunity, to study, sitting at a desk 2-3 evenings a week for 3 months while the training courses for arbitration managers last.

Usually students of professional retraining courses, including potential arbitration managers, located anywhere in the world, wish to study in the modeson- lineoroff- linelooking at the monitors their favorite computers and viewing educational material at a time convenient for them as many times as they deem necessary.

When deciding on training, your readers need to understand that training under the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers”, approved by Order of the Ministry of Economic Development dated December 10, 2009 No. 517, is paid in all educational institutions.

At the Private Security Educational Institution “Personal Security Academy” the tuition fee for this academic year is set at 28 thousand rubles. per listener. True, the cost of training sometimes changes, which you can find out by “going” to our website

The issue of future employment is especially acute for officers preparing to retire and for members of their families. Officers transferred to the reserve are usually healthy, have extensive practical experience in management activities, have a higher education, but it is difficult for them to adapt and find employment in the so-called “civilian” workforce. I can judge this based on my own experience - after 23 years of service in the Russian Armed Forces, having retired with the rank of lieutenant colonel, I had to “taste all the delights” of finding a decent job. There was only one conclusion - only professional retraining, only increasing the level of one’s own competencies, and not personal acquaintances and so-called “connections”, will allow one to find decent employment.

Considering that when mastering the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers”, students study a wide range of issues and topics related to: legal support for business activities; bankruptcy laws; taxation of legal entities and individuals; accounting and reporting; analysis of the financial condition of organizations; assessing the effectiveness of investment projects; valuation activities, etc., I would recommend that employees of financial and economic structures, practicing lawyers, and heads of organizations master this program.

And especially to managers, since it is they who are responsible for the results of the financial and economic activities of the organizations entrusted to them, and it is they who can bear, in the event of loss of solvency of their companies, both material and administrative and criminal liability for fictitious, for deliberate bankruptcy, and for unlawful actions during bankruptcy procedures.

Of course, I recommend training under this program for bank employees, insurance company employees, and representatives of microfinance organizations, where the risk of bankruptcy, and therefore the risk of dismissal, is very high.

In my opinion, having mastered the “Unified Training Program for Arbitration Managers” in 3 months and received a diploma of professional retraining in the field of crisis management, both those who are currently unemployed and university graduates will significantly increase their chances of finding a job.

When deciding to study in this program, students, in my opinion, should not pay attention to their initial basic higher education - anyone with a higher education can master this program.

As my practice shows, not only people with higher legal or economic education, but also engineers, former military personnel, military pilots, and, to my surprise, people with higher medical education work very successfully as arbitration managers.

Having completed professional retraining, individuals receive a Diploma of Professional Retraining (see Diploma form).

If your readers have any questions, feel free to contact me using my personal email: or phone 8-915-969-60-12

Perfilyev A.B.