Dynamics of the cost of building materials. Marketing analysis and forecasting of the level, dynamics and structure of wholesale prices for building materials Anton Borisovich Teklin. Subjective factors determining the pricing of concrete

In this section, you can study the dynamics of prices for ready-mixed concrete over the past six months: see how prices have changed on average for all brands and types of ready-mixed concrete, as well as for a specific product.

The price of ready-mixed concrete depends on many different factors, which can be divided into objective and subjective (or “fixed and variable”).

Objective factors

Concrete ingredients

Among the objective or permanent factors influencing the market prices of concrete, one can, first of all, mention the pricing of the ingredients included in its composition.

The main ingredients for the production of concrete are:

• cement
• sand
• crushed stone, gravel
• various special additives, such as water repellents and plasticizers.

As for the cost of cement, the decisive role here is played by the price of road transportation or delivery by other means to the place of production. The closer the cement plant is to the place of production, the lower, naturally, the final price of cement upon delivery.

The price of sand or sand-gravel mixture depends on the proximity of the quarry, since it is usually delivered by road and the delivery price also plays a critical role.

An important filler for concrete is gravel or crushed stone. They have different characteristics that influence their base price and are therefore reflected in the overall cost structure of concrete. Let's consider what the price of gravel, crushed granite, and crushed limestone depends on.

Gravel is a natural stone, quite loose with various inclusions. Its origin is varied, which affects its adhesion to other materials. Mountain gravel, the most commonly used in concrete mixtures, has better adhesion. Sea, lake, river, and glacial gravel is also used. Its adhesion is worse due to streamlining.

Crushed stone is already produced by crushing granite, boulders, and limestone. The price of crushed granite stone is higher due to its high consumer qualities. It does not erode over time and remains hard during use. The price of crushed limestone is lower, since its extraction is carried out in most regions and the transport component is minimal, but also, of course, consumer properties, which are lower than those of crushed granite.

If we roughly take the average prices for these materials, then the most expensive will be granite crushed stone, approximately 30-35% higher than limestone crushed stone. The price of crushed gravel is generally comparable to the price of crushed limestone. Next, the specific conditions of the remoteness of the quarries and, as a consequence, transportation costs are taken into account. Another component that affects the prices of granite crushed stone is the size of its fractions from 5 mm to 120 mm, depending on the tasks being solved. Gravel fractions are divided into small fractions up to 1.25 mm, medium fractions up to 5 mm, large fractions up to 10 mm.

All measurements of concrete components are made in cubic meters. The cubes also track the dynamics of prices for ready-mixed concrete and other types of concrete.

Utility bills

The price of water and electricity directly depends on the tariffs established in each specific region and objectively affects the annual increase in the cost of ready-mixed concrete, depending on the level of increase in utility rates.

Thus, the cost of ready-mixed concrete depends on the increase or decrease in prices for the constituent ingredients, and it is also influenced by the dynamics of the cost of utilities and the important fuel for transportation. The transport component in concrete production also plays an important role.

Final characteristics of ready-mixed concrete

In addition to the basic components, the cost of ready-mixed concrete is influenced by its final consumer properties:

• strength, which is specified by GOSTs and technical conditions. We are talking about classes and grades of concrete strength;
• mobility of concrete, which affects the ease of its laying. Parameters such as cone settlement or the option of cast concrete;
• terms of concrete hardening and hardening;
• water resistance coefficient of concrete grades;
• frost resistance coefficient.

Seasonality is an important factor in determining the price of concrete. Depending on the climatic characteristics of the production region, it can be attributed to both types of factors (both objective and subjective) influencing the final cost of the product. But on average, based on the dynamics of prices for ready-mixed concrete in the central regions of Russia over several years, January - April is a period of decline in production and lower prices, and from May an increase begins, which is usually fixed at a certain level in the summer and persists until the end of the year.

Subjective factors determining the pricing of concrete.

Price lists

Companies selling ready-mixed concrete in Moscow

During 2015, the cost of raw materials - cement, crushed stone, metal - decreased noticeably, which led to a decrease in prices for basic building materials - concrete and reinforcement. At the end of the year, the total cost of materials for the construction of 1 cubic meter of monolith decreased by 5-10%. This data is provided by the analytical center of the construction company RD Construction.

At the beginning of 2016, the average cost of materials for monolithic work varied from 8,000 to 15,000 rubles per 1 cubic meter. The final cost depends on a number of factors: the volume of construction, the quality and quantity of materials, the contractor company and the timing of the work. What causes such a price difference? To answer this question, the analytical center examined the most common materials and analyzed their price component.

Analysis of these data shows that the cost of work is most strongly influenced by two indicators: reinforcement coefficient and types of monolithic work. For example, the cost of a foundation monolith can be 40-50% lower than the cost of a column monolith. This is due to the amount of reinforcement, formwork, auxiliary and consumable materials used, as well as the complexity of the work performed: complex work is more expensive. At the same time, despite the decline in prices, a slight increase in the cost of materials is expected in the first half of 2016 due to increased demand.

In Moscow and the Moscow region, the total spread of minimum and maximum prices for building materials can be up to 25%. This is a significant amount for the overall construction budget.

How can a customer save on monolithic work? The opportunity for optimization opens up primarily through the selection of a high-quality general contractor who, on the one hand, has direct contracts with material manufacturers and, on the other hand, provides the best ratio of price, quality and timing of monolithic work.

The customer should be wary of companies that indicate a knowingly underestimated cost in their estimates. Dumping at the tender stage in order to “enter” the project, such a general contractor will close cost discrepancies with the help of numerous additional agreements.

Thus, in the current economic situation, the solution for developers is to responsibly select a partner - a construction company. The general contractor's task is not only to perform the work, but also to manage the construction. Such a partner can carry out optimization by simplifying (but not worsening) design solutions and reducing project timelines.

“In the situation of working with a high-quality and financially stable general contractor, the investor, being confident in the quality and final cost, retains only control functions and can concentrate on the successful implementation of the entire development project,” summarizes General Director of RD Construction Oleg Zhukov.

There are a huge number of different materials on the market, their prices are constantly changing and sometimes it is very difficult to keep track of their growth. In order to build a house, you need to invest a huge amount of money, which will be needed to buy wood, cement, sand, bricks and many other little things that you can’t even count.

For larger organizations - developers, it is much more profitable to purchase building materials, because the volume is quite large and it is easier to bring a large shipment to its destination than to transport a small one at the same price. Renovation work for a home or office is no less cheap; some invest an amount that is equal to the purchase of the same property.

Construction of a new house and renovation work on existing premises is always quite difficult. Before this, it is necessary to determine the cost of building materials in order to assess the possibilities and analyze the benefits of the work done.

Current Trends

Analysts believe that a fall in prices for building materials should not be expected next year. According to some reports, the increase in cost could be significant, exceeding 40%. Most large manufacturers are focused on exporting goods due to low demand. At the same time, the cost of the building materials themselves has not changed for some time.

The situation with building materials has been on the pencil of the Prosecutor General's Office since 2014. Basically we are talking about the construction of social, educational, sports and other facilities that the customer cannot figure out on his own. The first of the serious problems is non-compliance with technology by manufacturers or developers: then even high-quality materials acquire dangerous properties. There are such violations throughout Russia - from the Moscow and Kostroma regions to Transbaikalia and the Komi Republic.

The second group of violations is the lack of documents confirming the quality of building materials. There is also a rich regional palette here - from the Chechen Republic and Khakassia to Tatarstan and the Leningrad region.

How will prices for building materials change in 2019?

The price of materials used for the construction of various objects is directly influenced by various factors, the main one of which is the unstable national currency. The ruble is constantly falling in value. Prices are expected to rise in the foreign exchange market in 2019. Experts believe that construction companies should be prepared for an unexpected turn of events - a price increase of up to 100%. Therefore, many manufacturers and buyers of building materials will increase the cost to the highest possible level. When the dollar rises, the price may increase several times.

Influence of external factors

The unstable economic situation is not surprising to anyone, and the crisis in recent years has significantly affected many industries. This also affected manufacturers of building materials, since the supply to the market did not decrease, but the demand for them decreased. The optimal solution was export, which slowly but surely reduces the saturation of the local market with the required goods. This, in turn, leads them to rise in price.

The cost of materials produced for construction can be influenced by various factors. The most important of them is the unstable exchange rate of the ruble, which is constantly declining. In 2018, an increase is expected in the foreign exchange market and expert opinion is inclined to the most unexpected turn of events (from 50 to 100). For this reason, most manufacturers and sellers of building materials will increase the cost to the maximum. When the dollar rises, prices can increase several times.

Forecast for 2019

A slight increase may be observed for building materials such as cement, sand and crushed stone. The price may increase up to 20%. Blocks and bricks will rise in price by 10-20%. Such data depends on the region in which construction is planned. The maximum price for building materials in 2018 will be fixed in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Many materials continue to rise in price, reaching 60%. In small towns the price will increase by 15%. Regions that have their own producers of building materials will not experience a sharp rise in prices. In such cities it can only rise to 10%. At the same time, price growth in any region will depend on the price of gasoline, wages, and GDP.

Traditionally, the construction season begins in March and ends with the first frost in November. This directly affects the cost of materials during construction. As in 2012, the first surge in price growth was recorded with the arrival of spring. Materials have risen in price by 2-5%.

Note to the table: The unit price of reinforcement for visual illustration was changed from RUR/t to RUR/kg.

According to the website, the largest increase occurred in solid bricks (1NF), which have risen in price by almost 30% since the beginning of the year (3 rubles per piece), and are currently sold at an average price of 12 rubles 30 kopecks.

The average cost of double brick (2NF) also increased significantly, but prices for it, having risen sharply in the spring, began to decline in the middle of the construction season. Since May 2013, the wholesale cost of double bricks has fallen from 17 to 16 rubles per piece. According to company experts, the reason for such price dynamics was overstocking - a situation in which supply exceeds demand.

“In the current construction season, we can observe a very interesting situation on the Moscow and Moscow region markets of building materials - overstocking. Manufacturers have created more products than consumers need. At the same time, in some central regions the situation is more stable and predictable - prices rise with the beginning of spring and decrease with the arrival of cold weather,” comments the general director of the site

According to the expert, this is directly related to the activity of major players - investors in the market and indirectly, of course, to the fact that elections for the post of mayor of Moscow and governor of the Moscow region will take place in the fall of 2013.

“Almost all materials wholesalers surveyed claim that government customers are freezing their projects indefinitely. This may be related to the upcoming elections. Investors are interested, first of all, not in implementing new projects, but in preserving existing ones,” says the expert.

Note that a similar situation in the building materials market was observed before the presidential elections in 2012.

Experts on the site expect a reduction in the wholesale cost of double bricks by 30-50 kopecks per month until winter. With the onset of cold weather, the price of this material, according to experts, will stop and last until spring. An increase in prices for solid bricks is not expected, and will remain at the achieved level in July 2013.

It is noteworthy that the construction off-season did not affect the cost level of ceramic blocks (380mm) in winter, however, at the height of the season, wholesale prices for this material began to rise rapidly. The cost of this item increased from 104.26 to 112.18 rubles per piece. The growth dynamics was 7.6%.

The cost of cement in the winter of 2012-2013. traditionally decreased and reached 240 rubles per bag (50 kg). With the arrival of spring, this material rose in price by 4%, but this price lasted only 2 months. In May, the cost of cement dropped again to 240 rubles and remains at this level.

Prices for concrete, having been fixed at 4,700 rubles per ton in July 2012, fell by 4.5% in January 2013, but the start of the construction season returned the cost of this material to its previous level by May. Currently, the average wholesale price of concrete is 4,700 rubles per ton.

“The prices for building materials in the estimate, of course, also affect the final cost of the house, so our clients are increasingly choosing the most optimal houses for living in terms of the use of building materials, and also pay attention to the functionality of the layout and the total area of ​​the house.. This is connected also with rising prices for materials, and with the upcoming luxury tax law,” the CEO of the site sums up.